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Underbids All Over The Map | San Francisco

Did you miss the Top 10 Overbids last week? Don’t worry, SFGate has em posted, but since it’s Monday (well it was yesterday), we like to bring you the weekly top 10 Underbids. Sounds like SFGate might recap them there too, so keep your eyes peeled.

The top dogs are a variety this time around. Locations are spread out – Western Addition, Bayview, Nob hill, Telegraph Hill, Marina, Pacific Heights, Inner Mission, Cow Hollow, and Noe Valley. Sizes range from a 232 square foot micro studio condo, which sold for $390,000 (don’t get too excited, that’s nearly $1700/sqft), to a 5590 square foot 5 bedroom mansion, which sold for only $1500/sqft (don’t get too excited here either, that’s $8.4M). There’s even a commercial unit in the mix, that fetched “only” $430/sqft (we ain’t talking apples to apples to the above.)

Just goes to show, in real estate, particularly in San Francisco it’s all about location, location, location…and pricing, marketing, presentation, and timing.

Regardless, have a great work week. Enjoy the top 10, stay dry, and pray for more rain/snow.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
1406 Golden Gate Avenue 3/2/0 $1,399,000 $1,200,000 -14.22 %
1311-1313 Palou 2-4 Units $995,000 $875,000 -12.06 %
1300 Pacific Avenue 0/2/0 $468,000 $425,000 -9.19 %
412 Green Street #A 0/1/0 $425,000 $390,000 -8.24 %
3315 Pierce Street 3/3.5/3 $2,699,000 $2,500,000 -7.37 %
2470 Broadway 5/4.5/2 $6,995,000 $6,500,000 -7.08 %
1326 Utah Street 2-4 Units $1,289,000 $1,200,000 -6.90 %
33 Perine Place 2/2/1 $1,500,000 $1,400,000 -6.67 %
2828 Divisadero Street 5/5.5/2 $8,995,000 $8,400,000 -6.61 %
425 28th Street 3/2/1 $1,695,000 $1,588,888 -6.26 %

theFrontSteps Overbids on SFGate [SF Gate, San Francisco Chronicle Online]

mansion1

$2,000,000 Under Asking In Pacific Heights…Actually $1,925,000 But Who’s Counting

If that $200,000 underbid from a few weeks ago seems like a good deal to you, have a look at this seven bedroom Pacific Heights Single Family home at 2660 Scott (you must click that link…the pictures are amazing), which was listed in September at $15,000,000 and closed last week at $13,075,000. Almost $2,000,000 under asking.
mansion2
Considering the home only last sold in 2004 for just shy of $6,000,000 I’d say the sellers are pretty thrilled (keeping in mind we don’t know how much they sunk into it, of course). IMHO the home was worth every penny of $15,000,000, so the buyers should be thrilled too. It’s a trophy home, and I’m totally jealous, as should be all of you.
2660scott
As for the rest of our weekly underbids. Here you go…the top 10 Underbids of the week.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2660 Scott Street 7/7/6 $15,000,000 $13,075,000 -12.83 %
814-816 Cole 2-4 Units $1,990,000 $1,775,000 -10.80 %
1374 Union Street 3/3.5/2 $3,350,000 $3,000,000 -10.45 %
184 London Street 3/1/0 $574,000 $520,000 -9.41 %
365 Magellan Avenue 5/3.5/2 $2,520,000 $2,350,000 -6.75 %
601 Van Ness Avenue 2/2/1 $879,000 $825,000 -6.14 %
595 Waller Street 3/2/0 $1,300,000 $1,225,000 -5.77 %
2445 Polk Street 2/2/1 $1,450,000 $1,371,150 -5.44 %
3515 Washington Street 2/2/2 $3,995,000 $3,800,000 -4.88 %
580 Prentiss Street 2/1/1 $998,000 $950,000 -4.81 %

As always, I share all of this wonderful data with you in real time on several sources:
1. The Goods
2. sfnewsletter (sign up at sfnewsletter.com)
3. theFrontSteps.com

Get this stuff bookmarked, sign up to receive via email, follow me on Facebook, Twitter @theFrontSteps, LinkedIn. Do what you gotta do to get yourself educated on our market.

And have a great day.

2660 Scott, Property Detail Page

1333 Jones St., Nob Hill San Francisco

13% Under Asking In Nob Hill | That’s An Audi R8

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! I know I did. Back to the grind…

With the grind comes daily ganders at all things San Francisco real estate, and today is no exception. Check out this this Nob Hill Co-op apartment at 1333 Jones topping our weekly list of underbids (because they do exist).
1333jones

Listed just under $1.5M and sold for $1.3M… that’s gotta put a smile on your face. The $200,000 savings can put an Audi R8 in your garage (it is holiday season after all), or your kids through San Francisco pre-school (go with the R8). :-)

Hey look! Two other full service bachelor pads also sold under asking recently: one at the Four Seasons and the other at the Ritz Carlton. Underbid by about 8% after being on market for 339 and 227 days respectively. Wowza…

Anywho…the weekly top 10 list of Underbids for your Monday viewing pleasure:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
1333 Jones #801 1/1.5/1 $1,495,000 $1,300,000 -13.04 %
2955 Pacific Avenue 3/2/1 $4,100,000 $3,650,000 -10.98 %
2535 Vallejo Street 3/3.75/2 $6,275,000 $5,600,000 -10.76 %
956 South Van Ness 4/3.5/2 $2,995,000 $2,674,000 -10.72 %
3283 25th Street 2-4 Units $1,788,000 $1,615,000 -9.68 %
765 Market Street #27B 1/1.5/0 $1,550,000 $1,415,000 -8.71 %
690 Market Street 1/2/1 $1,150,000 $1,050,000 -8.70 %
3236 Scott Street 5+ Units $2,450,000 $2,250,000 -8.16 %
825 Rhode Island Street 4/3.5/1 $1,895,000 $1,750,000 -7.65 %
1069 Capp Street 5+ Units $1,799,000 $1,675,000 -6.89 %
2955pacific

Pacific Heights Condo Goes 11% Under | Elevator Ensures Minimal Neighbor Contact

Last week it was this Bernal Heights home that went 20% under asking, thus claiming the podium position. The winner this week is an ultra-deluxe condo in one of the most sought-after neighborhoods on the “North End” of town, Pacific Heights. This home at 2955 Pacific has views, a deck, a formal dining room perfect for Thanksgiving (maybe a 9 lb. Turkey and 6 guests, instead of the 16 lb. Turkey you’re envisioning), and even an elevator that takes you from garage to your unit, so you never have to see your politically incorrect neighbors that love to corner you into a discussion (or lecture) about why their candidate is best suited to occupy the White House.

Listed for $4.1M and sold for $3.65, what a bargain…and those red chairs are so great…ornot.
redchair

As for the top 10 Underbid list, here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2955 Pacific Avenue 3/2/1 $4,100,000 $3,650,000 -10.98 %
622-626 Buchanan Street 2-4 Units $1,399,000 $1,250,000 -10.65 %
3283 25th Street 2-4 Units $1,788,000 $1,615,000 -9.68 %
765 Market Street 1/1.5/0 $1,550,000 $1,415,000 -8.71 %
2340 29th Avenue 4/2/3 $1,299,000 $1,190,000 -8.39 %
265 Minerva Street 2/1/1 $699,999 $659,000 -5.86 %
570-572 6th Avenue 2-4 Units $1,800,000 $1,700,000 -5.56 %
1052 Rhode Island Street 3/1/1 $899,000 $850,000 -5.45 %
313 2nd Avenue 2/1/1 $789,000 $749,000 -5.07 %
886 30th Avenue 2/2.5/1 $1,450,000 $1,380,000 -4.83 %

This data is pulled from properties sold within the past two weeks. To get this type of stuff sent to your inbox, sign up for sfnewsletter at sfnewsletter.com. I send it roughly every other week.

(Keep in mind the properties we feature go into contract, usually have an escrow period, then close…When we post that a property “goes” we’re referring to the day it actually is SOLD, not the day it goes into contract.)

04-alex-clark-portrait-citybg-2x3I wish you all a wonderful Thanksgiving Holiday filled with good food, good cheer, friends, family, football, skiing, surfing, no drama, no accidents, no injuries, tasty cocktails, cold beer, and old expensive delicious red wine. Happy Thanksgiving! Thank you all for your continued readership, loyalty, referrals, and business. It has been a great year, and it’s still not over (I have a great off market single family home in Cole Valley should you be interested.)

2317 Webster

Maximum Overbids Step Aside…Meet The Underbids

For nearly a decade (maybe more), I’ve blogged about overbids. It’s tiring. It’s time for something new. Last week I mentioned condo prices dropping 3% from August to September, and I’m not saying the market is crashing, but you should be aware that not EVERYTHING sells over asking, including the oh-so-rare single-family home.

That’s right, out of the top 10 underbids of the week, 7 are single-family homes. A Pacific Heights home listed at $3,250,000 and sold for $2,825,000 a whopping 40 days later. What a score, and what an amazingly beautiful property in an awesome location. I’m jealous.

Address Type BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2317 Webster Street Single-Family Homes 4/2.5/3 $3,250,000 $2,825,000 -13.08 % 239 Broad Street Single-Family Homes 0/1/0 $899,000 $800,000 -11.01 % 100 Delano Avenue Single-Family Homes 6/3/3 $1,300,000 $1,160,000 -10.77 % 651 4th Avenue 653 2-4 Units N/A $1,500,000 $1,400,000 -6.67 % 3808 Clay Street Single-Family Homes 4/2.5/2 $4,500,000 $4,200,000 -6.67 % 601 4th Street Condo/Coop/TIC/Loft 1/1/1 $1,499,000 $1,400,000 -6.60 % 929 Cayuga Avenue Single-Family Homes 5/4/3 $1,105,000 $1,035,000 -6.33 % 2829 Green Street Single-Family Homes 5/5.5/2 $9,600,000 $9,000,000 -6.25 % 301 Mission Street Condo/Coop/TIC/Loft 2/3/1 $4,495,000 $4,250,000 -5.45 % 2676 Great Highway Single-Family Homes 3/1/1 $957,050 $911,000 -4.81 %

Check back next Monday and market your calendars, as I hope to bring you more Underbids more regularly.

IMG_0339

San Francisco Real Estate Market Mid-Year Report

Home Price Appreciation Rates; Prices, Cost & Affordability;
Dollar per Square Foot; Interest Rates; Sales Price to List Price Ratio

Bay Area Appreciation Rates since 2011
Combined House & Condo Median Sales Prices

BayArea-Median-Price-Increases_2011-2015YTD_by-County

Besides the general economic recovery, there are other factors in different counties affecting home price increases over the past 4 years: 1) the huge decline in distressed property sales in those counties severely affected during the downturn (such as Solano, Contra Costa & Alameda), 2) the dramatic surge in luxury home sales (such as in SF, San Mateo & Marin), 3) increasing luxury condo construction (SF), and 4) the effect of the high-tech boom in employment and wealth, which radiates out from San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

The higher priced counties, led by San Francisco and San Mateo, saw the largest dollar increases in median prices since 2011 – $400,000 to $500,000 – but counties rebounding from the distressed property crisis often experienced the biggest percentage jumps. The city of Oakland, benefiting from both the decline in distressed sales and being the closest, most affordable option to high San Francisco housing prices saw by far the largest percentage increase: 133%.

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San Francisco Appreciation Rates by Neighborhood

Note that median prices within the city are also affected by a variety of factors beyond simple increases in fair market value.

SF House Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Percentage-Appreciation

We’re almost positive that we recommended that everyone buy at least one median-priced Pacific Heights mansion in 2011 at the bargain-basement price of $3,225,000. If you had followed this (imaginary) advice, your home would have appreciated by $2.77 million. However, on a pure return on investment basis, you would have done better to snap up a few median-priced houses in the Mission, which appreciated by an incredible 143%. It should be noted that both of these neighborhoods have comparatively few house sales as compared to, say, the Sunset or Bernal Heights. Low supply is often one factor in high appreciation rates.

SF Condo Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-Condo-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

2011-2015_SF-Median-Condo-Price-Percentage-Appreciation

For condos, Russian Hill led the way in dollar median price appreciation and Yerba Buena was tops in percentage price increase since the bottom of the market in 2011.

Over the past 4 years, houses have appreciated a bit more than condos in the city, 81% to 73%, and that is probably due to the fact that houses are becoming the scarcer commodity: While thousands of new condos are now being built each year, new house construction can usually be counted on 2 or 3 hands.

For prevailing SF median house and condo prices, our interactive map of neighborhood values can be found here:SF Neighborhood Home-Price Map

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Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
by San Francisco Neighborhood

7-15_House_AvgDolSqFt_by-SF-Neighborhood

7-15_Condo_AvgDolSqFt_by-SF-Neighborhood

Increasing average dollar per square foot values have been breaking records in neighborhoods throughout San Francisco for the last 2 years. Some of the surge in condo values is explained by the many recently built luxury condo projects – which have been selling at premium dollar per square foot prices – that have been sprouting up around the city.

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San Francisco Luxury Home Sales

Q2-2015_SF-Luxury-Home-Sales_by_Qtr

Sales of higher-end houses and condos have been soaring in the city and hit by far their highest number ever in the second quarter. Big jumps in expensive home sales are an important factor behind increases in the overall median sales price.

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Appreciation, Cost & Affordability

Short-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 2012)

Median_SFD-Condo_by-Qtr_Short-term

Long-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 1993)

Median-Price_Sep-SF-SFD-Cndo_1993-Present_V2

Inflation & Interested Rate-Adjusted Housing Cost (since 1993)

1993-Present_SF-PITI-Cost_Inflation-Adjusted

The short-term and long-term appreciation charts above are self-explanatory. The Home Cost Trends chart reflects a very approximate calculation of monthly home payment costs (principal, interest, property tax and insurance) adjusted for inflation – i.e. in 1993 dollars – using annual median house sales prices, average annual 30-year interest rates, and assuming a 20% downpayment. The average annual compounding CPI inflation rate fluctuated, but averaged approximately 2.4% over the period, and average annual mortgage rates fluctuated from 8.4% to 3.7% (see chart further below), which had a huge impact on financing costs.

Adjusting for inflation and interest rate changes means that though the median sales price is now far above that of 2007, the monthly housing cost is still a little bit below then. This isn’t a perfect apples-to-apples comparison because it doesn’t take into account that the amount of the 20% downpayment increased significantly over the time period. Still, since ongoing cost is typically an important factor for homebuyers (at least those getting financing), this affords another angle on our market.

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Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

1993-Present_30-Year_Interest-Rates_Comp

Over the last 4 years, the big decline in interest rates has largely subsidized the increase in home prices.

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Price Reductions, Sales Prices to List Prices,
and Days on Market

Q2-15_SP-OP_DOM_by-Price-Reduction

In the 2nd quarter, the vast majority of SF home sales sold without prior price reductions; these sold very quickly, at an astounding average of 14.5% over the original list price – clear indications of a white-hot market. For the past 4 years, spring has been by far the most frenzied selling season of the year, and the market usually cools in summer.

There you have it.

Recent Transactions [Alexander Clark]

sf-decorators-showcase-rob-j-photos17

A Look Inside The 2015 San Francisco Decorator Showcase

If you’re like most people who either didn’t get an invite, or don’t have the time to go check out the 2015 Decorator Showcase Home located at 3630 Jackson, don’t fret. One of my favorite photographers, Rob Jordan, has been kind enough to share some amazing interior photos with me, so I can share with you. Enjoy…and share with your friends.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

To see more great photos, visit (and like) Rob’s Facebook Page. If you’d like to use these photos in any media or blogging, please contact him and don’t poach.

Pretty amazing place, eh? Speaking of amazing places, Kirk Hammet’s former residence (Yes, Metallica guitarist), 2505 Divisadero on the peak of Pacific Heights, is back on (but off) the market asking $12,500,000 and I’d be happy to get you in for a look.

[Update: Don’t get me wrong, if you have the time, you can definitely get in. Tours go through 5/25.]

3800washington

Stalefish: You Won’t Believe Your Eyes

There is a little something in our market, of which many buyers are not aware, and many agents overlook. I have long referred to them as “Stalefish“, but others refer to them as “buying opportunity” or “still available property”, or what we named (on theGoods) as the “30+ Club”. What are these, you ask?

They are, quite simply, properties on the market more than 30 days, and darnit if there aren’t quite a few gems out there that I’d love you to buy.

Getting beat up in Noe Valley? Check out 469 Valley:
469valley
This is a 3220 square foot remodeled view home in Noe Valley…and it’s still available! Deck, garden, master suite, it has it all. Listed at $2,989,000.

Not your cup of tea? Check out 27-29 Fountain, also in Noe Valley:
27Fountain
Previously listed at $2,900,000, this detached Victorian with 4 bedrooms, booming views, decks, parking, yard, and a great location is now $2,600,000! You just saved $300,000. Opportunity knocking right here.

Maybe you don’t like Noe, and you’d rather be in Cole Valley – sorry, nada. But keep checking!

You think Pacific Heights never has anything for you? Think again. This absolutely stunning home at 2701 Broadway is still there:
SONY DSC

SONY DSC
“Comprised of five levels encompassing over 16,000 square feet the home includes 7 bedrooms, 7 full baths, and 4 half-baths, plus 2 kitchens, 2 family rooms, 2 offices, 3 rooftop terraces, a basketball/sport court, plus a multitude of rooms for today’s active lifestyle. 2 car garage,” and a bargain price of $39,000,000.

Okay, so maybe $39,000,000 is a bit more than you can handle, and you really don’t like basketball anyway. Maybe surfing is more your thing? Well…you’re in luck. It just so happens this little fish at 2307 40th Ave is still there:
230740thAVe
It’s “beautifully remodeled and updated”, close to the beach, and other “neighborhood conveniences like Walgreens” (huh?), and from what I can tell, very ready to be sold.

So if you’re getting beat out by the hordes of buyers all over the hot new listings, and you have possibly overlooked those homes that weren’t exactly perfect, you might like to give this list another glance. And if you’re an agent, you might like to send this invaluable information to your clients (branded to you, or course).

Whether you call ’em Stalefish, or otherwise, no matter how you slice it, there is opportunity out there in many shapes, sizes, and prices. Prices which, at this point, could be very negotiable.

Time to go fishing!

p.s. Wondering about the home with all the marble columns? It’s available too: 3800 Washington, $17,995,000, and it’s frickin amazing!

Stalefish, 30+ Club, Buying Opportunity: Find it all here
Battle Royale: Cole Valley Versus Noe Valley [theFrontSteps]

[Big Ass Disclaimer: Every property in this post and on the Goods 30+Club is listed as “active” on MLS. All information is deemed to be accurate, but not guaranteed.]

2224jackson

Pacific Heights Property Fetches $1,706,000 Over Asking

You read that correctly, 2224 Jackson Street, a Pacific Heights trophy three unit property listed at $2,095,000, just knocked out last week’s stunner at 2514 Gough (Sold $1.4M over), to take the cake for most insane insanity ever in real estate anywhere, ever, by selling for $1,706,000 over asking price, or a grand total of $3,801,000. It is a vacant multi unit property in one of the best areas of town, but still – that’s nuts.

That was the winner, but there were more. Second place was a paltry $600,000 over asking– that one got kicked off the list today. See the top 10 Overbids list below.

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2224 Jackson St 2-4 Units 13 $2,095,000 $3,801,000 81.43%
1783 Noe St 2/1.00/N/A 24 $1,195,000 $1,705,000 42.68%
390 Franconia St 2/1.00/N/A 6 $895,000 $1,262,375 41.05%
239 Judah St 3/2.00/N/A 27 $1,199,000 $1,661,000 38.53%
2200 Lyon St 3/2.50/N/A 19 $2,100,000 $2,900,000 38.10%
141 2nd Ave 3/3.50/N/A 9 $1,900,000 $2,600,000 36.84%
3700 Folsom St 2/2.00/N/A 12 $1,049,000 $1,425,000 35.84%
79 Everson St 3/2.50/N/A 24 $1,195,000 $1,610,000 34.73%
5725 Diamond Heights Blvd 4/3.00/N/A 8 $1,595,000 $2,139,250 34.12%
727 35th Ave 5/4.50/N/A 13 $1,525,000 $2,025,000 32.79%

I need a drink. You?

Possible Shift In San Francisco Real Estate Market? Should You Sell Your Home Now?

February 2014 San Francisco Market Report

It is far too early in the year to reach definitive conclusions regarding substantive changes in the market, but there are indications of a number of shifts. From the hurly burly on the street, the word is that the quantity of offers coming in on new listings is declining. Where a new listing might have attracted 10 or 12 offers last spring, 3 or 4 are coming in now; where 3 or 4 offers would have arrived, the seller is getting 1. And, according to Broker Metrics, for every 2 listings that offers in December and January, another listing expired or was withdrawn without selling.

The amount of competition deeply affects home price increases.

There are still a very large number of buyers looking at listings online and at open houses. But more of them appear to be first-time buyers and they are proceeding more cautiously. Some buyers are burned out on the multiple-offer bidding frenzies of last year and are reluctant to participate in them. Though the market remains hot by any reasonable standard, by some statistical measures it is cooling. This may reflect a transition or only a lull before the spring sales season begins.

Recently, the investment-property analysis firm Reis speculated that SF apartment-rent growth — which has been extraordinary by any measure, especially in a period of low inflation — will slow despite intense demand and very low vacancy rates, simply because people can’t pay any more. It’s an idea which may or may not be correct or apply to other types of housing costs. Rent rates do play a role in purchase prices as buyers often compare the net housing costs of the two options.

Median Sales Price Appreciation by Neighborhood

In San Francisco, some of the most affluent neighborhoods — such as the Pacific Heights-Marina district and the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys district — started their recoveries in the second half of 2011, well before virtually every place else in the city or country. When 2012 began, prices in these districts soared, while other areas played catch up. In 2013, that dynamic flipped: Appreciation rates in comparatively less expensive neighborhoods surged, while slowing in the most affluent areas.

A big part of this is simple affordability: Priced out in one neighborhood (or city), buyers focused on others, similar in ambiance but less costly. Home prices there looked so good in comparison that buyers were willing to bid them up. The huge decline of distressed sales in areas severely affected, such as in Bayview, has had an outsized effect on median sales prices there. Continuing gentrification, as in the Mission, and increasing “luxury” condo construction in less affluent areas have also played parts in this trend. It’s not as if demand plunged in the Pacific Heights-Marina district (or Noe Valley, for that matter). Quite the contrary: its 9% appreciation rate in 2013 translated into the city’s largest median price increase in dollar terms ($300,000). However, in the previous year, this district saw year over year median price appreciation of 25%.

Note that median price appreciation does not perfectly correlate to changes in home values, as it can be affected by a variety of market factors. It does give an approximate sense of market trends.