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San Francisco Single Family Real Estate Appreciation since 2011

The information below is provided by Paragon Real Estate Group, enjoy:

In the last 5 years, San Francisco real estate market rebounded and went crazy hot, but how much did it really appreciate? Below is a great analysis from Paragon that shows you the data using median sales price. This post is specific to houses, the next post is specific to condominiums appreciation.

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new home construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.

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The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas, especially in the southern border neighborhoods of the city, were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If this situation applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.

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As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market don’t hesitate to ask.

If you, or anyone you know, are looking to buy or sell San Francisco real estate, take a look at my track record, happy clients, and generally awesome listings and let’s get you sorted.

Dropping In

Maximum Overbid Of The Week | Embrace The Chaos

This home on 43rd Ave just sold $331,000 over asking, and takes this week’s top spot on the top 10 San Francisco Overbids. But let’s look deeper into what’s going on here.

You might be wondering why I chose the amazing picture of pro surfer Damien Hobgood getting burned by some random guy as this week’s featured image to go with the continually insane overbids San Francisco dishes out. Well…it’s significant in many respects (in my mind anyway, so hear me out).

1. Not only does Ocean Beach occasionally get world class surf (word is out, sorry), but it brings the pain, as does our market to many, many, many buyers continually burned by that other buyer that dropped in on them and “stole” their home. And just like waves, there will always be another home come your way, so bite your lip, regroup, focus, don’t get upset, and get the next one.

2. The Avenues are the hottest part of town right now to be selling a Single Family Home, as it is the last frontier where such a home is still attainable under $1.1M (check the stats). You can find these homes in the Outer Sunset, Outer Parkside, and if you’re lucky, the Outer Richmond districts. Miraloma Park is a hidden gem of bargain homes too, but no beach. For you out of towners, Ocean Beach is where San Francisco officially ends, and Pacific Ocean begins (the “Bay” is not). This is our “beach” neighborhood, which at some point will go back to normal programming of fog for months on end, howling onshore winds, and no hipsters cruising on their penny boards to check the surf, because it will be too damn cold and the bikinis will be all covered up.

3.Who still prices a home like this, in a location like that, at $699,000? Seriously John. Seriously.

4. This sale is $331,000 over the asking price, but really, it was underpriced by at least $100,000, so let’s hope all the marketing that goes out around it doesn’t say “I got my clients $331,000 more than they expected!” We all know it was expected to go over, and I guarantee if they only got one offer at $699,000 they never would have sold it. At 1200 square feet, or $807/psft, some might even argue it is a steal.

5. The photo caption on the Surfing Magazine article sums it up best with what people THINK is happening in San Francisco real estate, “A quick reminder that the surfer closest to the peak of the wave, or in the barrel, has the right of way. Damien Hobgood and some tech nerd“. Don’t get me wrong, that’s a great caption and it’s definitely evident in the water, but it’s not just the techies with all the cash. I’ve been telling my clients and readers this for years. There is an insane amount of money from all walks of life in this city and greater Bay Area. It’s easy to point the finger at one group and make assumptions, but I guarantee you, your assumptions about the techies and our real estate market are wrong.

And before you go blaming the techies for your lack of wave domination, or missing out on your dream home, reconsider that GoPro strapped to your board, the Uber you just took to work, that baby picture you just HAD to share on Instagram, and all the other tech channels you can’t live without whether you’ve been living here 40 years, or 4. The city is a changing. Embrace the Chaos.

[Song: Pa Lante by Ozomatli; Album: Embrace the Chaos…turn it up!]

With all of that said, the Top 10:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2471 43rd Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 19 $699,000 $1,030,000 47.35%
1650 Florida Street 3/1.00/ 42 $695,000 $970,000 39.57%
1099 23rd Street 1/1.50/1 20 $599,000 $801,000 33.72%
136 Seville Street 2/1.00/N/A 33 $699,000 $890,000 27.32%
2769 Union Street 3/2.00/ 13 $2,499,000 $3,130,000 25.25%
4500 California Street 2/2.00/ 38 $980,000 $1,210,000 23.47%
164 Parker Avenue 2/1.00/B 31 $995,000 $1,210,000 21.61%
681 Panorama Drive 3/2.00/N/A 28 $999,000 $1,204,000 20.52%
204 Anderson Street 2/2.00/N/A 13 $1,189,000 $1,425,500 19.89%
2270 9th Avenue 4/3.50/N/A 8 $1,795,000 $2,150,000 19.78%

Have a great weekend! Looking to buy or sell Bay Area Real Estate? Look no further, and give me a shout.

Image Source for Surfers [Surfing Magazine]

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San Francisco Real Estate Market Mid-Year Report

Home Price Appreciation Rates; Prices, Cost & Affordability;
Dollar per Square Foot; Interest Rates; Sales Price to List Price Ratio

Bay Area Appreciation Rates since 2011
Combined House & Condo Median Sales Prices

BayArea-Median-Price-Increases_2011-2015YTD_by-County

Besides the general economic recovery, there are other factors in different counties affecting home price increases over the past 4 years: 1) the huge decline in distressed property sales in those counties severely affected during the downturn (such as Solano, Contra Costa & Alameda), 2) the dramatic surge in luxury home sales (such as in SF, San Mateo & Marin), 3) increasing luxury condo construction (SF), and 4) the effect of the high-tech boom in employment and wealth, which radiates out from San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

The higher priced counties, led by San Francisco and San Mateo, saw the largest dollar increases in median prices since 2011 – $400,000 to $500,000 – but counties rebounding from the distressed property crisis often experienced the biggest percentage jumps. The city of Oakland, benefiting from both the decline in distressed sales and being the closest, most affordable option to high San Francisco housing prices saw by far the largest percentage increase: 133%.

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San Francisco Appreciation Rates by Neighborhood

Note that median prices within the city are also affected by a variety of factors beyond simple increases in fair market value.

SF House Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Percentage-Appreciation

We’re almost positive that we recommended that everyone buy at least one median-priced Pacific Heights mansion in 2011 at the bargain-basement price of $3,225,000. If you had followed this (imaginary) advice, your home would have appreciated by $2.77 million. However, on a pure return on investment basis, you would have done better to snap up a few median-priced houses in the Mission, which appreciated by an incredible 143%. It should be noted that both of these neighborhoods have comparatively few house sales as compared to, say, the Sunset or Bernal Heights. Low supply is often one factor in high appreciation rates.

SF Condo Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-Condo-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

2011-2015_SF-Median-Condo-Price-Percentage-Appreciation

For condos, Russian Hill led the way in dollar median price appreciation and Yerba Buena was tops in percentage price increase since the bottom of the market in 2011.

Over the past 4 years, houses have appreciated a bit more than condos in the city, 81% to 73%, and that is probably due to the fact that houses are becoming the scarcer commodity: While thousands of new condos are now being built each year, new house construction can usually be counted on 2 or 3 hands.

For prevailing SF median house and condo prices, our interactive map of neighborhood values can be found here:SF Neighborhood Home-Price Map

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Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
by San Francisco Neighborhood

7-15_House_AvgDolSqFt_by-SF-Neighborhood

7-15_Condo_AvgDolSqFt_by-SF-Neighborhood

Increasing average dollar per square foot values have been breaking records in neighborhoods throughout San Francisco for the last 2 years. Some of the surge in condo values is explained by the many recently built luxury condo projects – which have been selling at premium dollar per square foot prices – that have been sprouting up around the city.

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San Francisco Luxury Home Sales

Q2-2015_SF-Luxury-Home-Sales_by_Qtr

Sales of higher-end houses and condos have been soaring in the city and hit by far their highest number ever in the second quarter. Big jumps in expensive home sales are an important factor behind increases in the overall median sales price.

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Appreciation, Cost & Affordability

Short-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 2012)

Median_SFD-Condo_by-Qtr_Short-term

Long-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 1993)

Median-Price_Sep-SF-SFD-Cndo_1993-Present_V2

Inflation & Interested Rate-Adjusted Housing Cost (since 1993)

1993-Present_SF-PITI-Cost_Inflation-Adjusted

The short-term and long-term appreciation charts above are self-explanatory. The Home Cost Trends chart reflects a very approximate calculation of monthly home payment costs (principal, interest, property tax and insurance) adjusted for inflation – i.e. in 1993 dollars – using annual median house sales prices, average annual 30-year interest rates, and assuming a 20% downpayment. The average annual compounding CPI inflation rate fluctuated, but averaged approximately 2.4% over the period, and average annual mortgage rates fluctuated from 8.4% to 3.7% (see chart further below), which had a huge impact on financing costs.

Adjusting for inflation and interest rate changes means that though the median sales price is now far above that of 2007, the monthly housing cost is still a little bit below then. This isn’t a perfect apples-to-apples comparison because it doesn’t take into account that the amount of the 20% downpayment increased significantly over the time period. Still, since ongoing cost is typically an important factor for homebuyers (at least those getting financing), this affords another angle on our market.

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Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

1993-Present_30-Year_Interest-Rates_Comp

Over the last 4 years, the big decline in interest rates has largely subsidized the increase in home prices.

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Price Reductions, Sales Prices to List Prices,
and Days on Market

Q2-15_SP-OP_DOM_by-Price-Reduction

In the 2nd quarter, the vast majority of SF home sales sold without prior price reductions; these sold very quickly, at an astounding average of 14.5% over the original list price – clear indications of a white-hot market. For the past 4 years, spring has been by far the most frenzied selling season of the year, and the market usually cools in summer.

There you have it.

Recent Transactions [Alexander Clark]

Ocean Beach Gem

SOLD | 624 46th Ave | Outer Richmond

I am pleased to announce the successful buyer representation on this awesome ocean view home in the Outer Richmond at 624 46th Ave.

The day it came on the market my client sent me a text, and I got him in a couple hours later. While I was standing on the bluff checking the surf, we wrote an offer, I contacted the listing agent, and I presented our offer via mobile device. I went surfing, and by the time I got back on land, our offer was accepted…and why wouldn’t it be!?

Great work and thanks to everyone involved in this sale, particularly my assistant, and congratulations to my buyer that is going to make this one amazing home. I’m totally jealous, and can’t wait to see what becomes of it.

Act fast, go big, and you too can prevail in this insane real estate market of San Francisco.

624 46th Ave, Outer Richmond Buyer Representation

Gorgeous Ocean Views

SOLD (In One Day) | 192 Seal Rock Dr. #2 – Outer Richmond

Remember when I said, “Something tells me this property won’t last long, so don’t drag your feet“? I wasn’t kidding. We put this on MLS Monday for $659,000, received two cash (pre-emptive) offers on Tuesday, and we closed for $735,000 today…not bad for an Outer Richmond 853 square foot, one bedroom TIC.


There is an art to this kind of result when selling a property, and it doesn’t come from throwing a sign up, and opening your front door. If you’re thinking about selling your property, or know anybody else who might be pondering the bags of money they’re sitting on, give me a shout. I’m here to help.

The property details:

Designer Kitchen

For Sale | 192 Seal Rock Dr. #2 | Outer Richmond

I’m claiming this as the best one bedroom ocean view property as far West as you can get in San Francisco, and here’s why:


Situated in San Francisco’s Outer Richmond District, this magnificent property is literally on the edge of nature, National Parks, hiking/running trails (Land’s End Coastal Trail considered by many to be the best trail in SF), and several major attractions in San Francisco. It overlooks Seal Rock with amazing 180 degree views of the Pacific Ocean, is walking distance to the Cliff House, Sutro Baths, Legion of Honor, Lincoln Park Golf Course, Fort Miley, and you can practically roll yourself down to Ocean Beach.

The owners have poured their heart and soul into remodeling this amazing building with the best, high end, designer features and finishes you can find, and you, my friend, are lucky enough to have come across it.

The Home Features:
-1 bedroom
-1 bath (separate shower and tub)
-1 car garage parking
-Approx 853 Square Feet (Per Seller)
-Carrara Marble Island countertops
-Spekva European Ash butcher block countertops
-Custom cabinets
-Recessed Lighting
-Thermador Gas Range with Hood
-Built in Bosch Refrigerator and Dishwasher
-Bosch Washer & Dryer in unit
-Hardwood floors throughout
-Radiant floor heating
-RC channel soundproofing between all units
-California Closets in Master Closet
-Franke Atriflo kitchen faucet
-Wired for surround sound
-Cat-5, Fiberoptic and Ethernet wired in entire unit
-Double paned windows
-$200/Mo HOA dues (incl. H20, Garbage, Gas, Reserves, Common Area Electric)
-Property is a Tenancy In Common and Individual/Fractional Financing is available with Sterling Bank
-List Price: $659,000

Showing Schedule:
Tuesday 12/2 from 11am-12:30pm
Thursday 12/4 from 4-6:30pm
Saturday 12/6 from 2-4pm
Sunday 12/7 from 2-4pm
Private showings by request
Offer date TBD

Something tells me this property won’t last long, so don’t drag your feet.

MLS Details: 192 Seal Rock Dr #2, $659,000

Contact me for details, to schedule a showing, and answer any questions.

Update: Sold for $735,000…cash, closed in 5 days.

Alex Clark
Paragon Real Estate Group
415-254-5351
alexclark@gmail.com

Rip Curl Pro Search San Francisco Surf Contest

Don’t be fooled by other agents trying to sell you an ocean view home on the Great Highway. That would be a monumental waste of money if your purchase is based on proximity to the contest. The Rip Curl Search San Francisco is supposed to happen at the north end of Ocean Beach often referred to as Kelly’s Cove/VFWs…somewhere around here.

So your best chance at buying a pad with a view to the contest rests in this building right here (855 La Playa), and there happens to be a few (very inexpensive) choices at the moment.

Bring binoculars, if da waves are big, dey gonna be far out in da wata.

What’s Happening In The Richmond District Of San Francisco

Every so often we come across blogs that are worthy of a plug, and the Richmond District Blog is one such blog. It is well written, a good source of information, fun, and easy on the eyes (not loaded with a bunch of crap and web design mistakes). Take a look, bookmark it, and be on your way to enlightenment on all things Richmond District!

Richmondsfblog.com

Another Reason to Love Living Here: The Heights

Seacliff in San Francisco

Fridays are for less serious real estate topic-age, so here is a meaningless poll and a tribute to another characteristic that makes SF unique.

Riding my bike through the Presidio last Saturday, I decided to cruise Presidio Heights. And oh my, the elevation-  in status, I mean. It’s dizzying. The homes are palatial, complete with giant grand pianos, harps, chandeliers,  all of which one can glimpse through elaborate stained glass windows. This got me wondering: why did I pick “teacher” as a career path?

But I digress. From a real estate standpoint, which Heights are really the highest (as in, highest class)? Where would you most desire to spend your halcyon days?

For my money, the top four are Presidio Heights, Pacific Heights, Telegraph Hill, and Sea Cliff.

No offense to any other Heights or Hills. Let’s be honest: SF is chock full of breath taking views from almost every corner (and I’d be thrilled to own a house in any of them), but if we include proximity to open space (like the Presidio or the ocean), the size of the homes and their lots, yards (front, back, side) and those cool carriage houses in back that are bigger than most people’s primary residences, then really, these four take the cake.

But I’m a sucker for parks and beaches, and if I have to pick from there, it’s sand and surf forever. My vote then is Sea Cliff.

Here are four ridiculously lush listings, one in each of my hypothetical contender’s neighborhoods. Study them, perhaps shedding a tear for your own career choice. From your own city explorer insight, which height is really the tops? Are certain areas more steady as investments? Are these places really worth all this dough? And are there really still enough buyers for places like this? After all, the four below are just four of myriad listings on the MLS for well over 3 million dollars, when the the San Francisco Census put the median income in our fair city at less than $70k.

2901 Broadway (Pacific Heights) (7 Bedroom mansion for $45 million.)

37 Presidio Ave (Presidio Heights)  (7 Bedroom single family for or $5, 395,000)

632 El Camino Del Mar (Sea Cliff) (5 Bedroom single family for $9,000,000)

 1454 Kearny St. (Telegraph Hill) (3 Bedroom single family for $3,500,000)

 

Sea Cliff shot via Panoramio