Below you will find important statistics for the past decade and a half on the luxury markets in District 5. The price point has reached $1.5M for an average home in Glen Park and more than $2M to own a home in Noe Valley and Eureka Valley. Note that the 2014 data are year-to-date, between 1/1/2014 to 7/25/2014.
It’s Friday, that means it’s time for the Top 10 Maximum Overbids of the week. As usual, there are some doozies, but nothing I would consider ultimate shockers like a few of the last weekly Top 10’s we’ve seen. The number one spot goes to the “Contractor’s Special” on Nevada in Bernal Heights that fetched 65% over (totally in line with market sales price, and not easy to price this type of property). The number 10 spot goes to my clients that finally won after so many years searching – 538 Baker in NOPA that was “only” 32% over asking and the winner out of 15 other offers, two of which were actually higher than ours and all cash. We had a loan. But we “won”.
Anyhow, on with the show. The Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco this past week:
|270 Nevada St||1/1.00/N/A||14||$530,000||$876,000||65.28%|
|866 Cayuga Ave||4/3.00/N/A||20||$928,000||$1,380,000||48.71%|
|27 Day St||3/1.00/N/A||43||$895,000||$1,310,000||46.37%|
|1271 15th Ave 1273||4/3.50/||13||$1,795,000||$2,550,000||42.06%|
|307 Parker Ave||3/2.00/N/A||13||$1,250,000||$1,710,000||36.80%|
|25 Miraloma Dr||3/2.00/N/A||10||$1,050,000||$1,420,000||35.24%|
|1150 Holloway Ave||2/1.00/N/A||35||$889,000||$1,200,000||34.98%|
|320 Castenada Ave||3/1.50/N/A||26||$1,695,000||$2,250,000||32.74%|
|471 Hickory St||2/1.00/N/A||5||$1,060,000||$1,400,000||32.08%|
If you’re curious what your property might sell for, give me a shout.
Have a great weekend!
-Top 20 Overbids Delivered to Your Door (Inbox) [sfnewsletter.com]
-Are Overbids A Result Of Intentional Underpricing? It’s Competitive Pricing [theFrontSteps]
-Top 20 Underbids [sfnewsletter.com]
February 2014 San Francisco Market Report
It is far too early in the year to reach definitive conclusions regarding substantive changes in the market, but there are indications of a number of shifts. From the hurly burly on the street, the word is that the quantity of offers coming in on new listings is declining. Where a new listing might have attracted 10 or 12 offers last spring, 3 or 4 are coming in now; where 3 or 4 offers would have arrived, the seller is getting 1. And, according to Broker Metrics, for every 2 listings that offers in December and January, another listing expired or was withdrawn without selling.
The amount of competition deeply affects home price increases.
There are still a very large number of buyers looking at listings online and at open houses. But more of them appear to be first-time buyers and they are proceeding more cautiously. Some buyers are burned out on the multiple-offer bidding frenzies of last year and are reluctant to participate in them. Though the market remains hot by any reasonable standard, by some statistical measures it is cooling. This may reflect a transition or only a lull before the spring sales season begins.
Recently, the investment-property analysis firm Reis speculated that SF apartment-rent growth — which has been extraordinary by any measure, especially in a period of low inflation — will slow despite intense demand and very low vacancy rates, simply because people can’t pay any more. It’s an idea which may or may not be correct or apply to other types of housing costs. Rent rates do play a role in purchase prices as buyers often compare the net housing costs of the two options.
Median Sales Price Appreciation by Neighborhood
In San Francisco, some of the most affluent neighborhoods — such as the Pacific Heights-Marina district and the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys district — started their recoveries in the second half of 2011, well before virtually every place else in the city or country. When 2012 began, prices in these districts soared, while other areas played catch up. In 2013, that dynamic flipped: Appreciation rates in comparatively less expensive neighborhoods surged, while slowing in the most affluent areas.
A big part of this is simple affordability: Priced out in one neighborhood (or city), buyers focused on others, similar in ambiance but less costly. Home prices there looked so good in comparison that buyers were willing to bid them up. The huge decline of distressed sales in areas severely affected, such as in Bayview, has had an outsized effect on median sales prices there. Continuing gentrification, as in the Mission, and increasing “luxury” condo construction in less affluent areas have also played parts in this trend. It’s not as if demand plunged in the Pacific Heights-Marina district (or Noe Valley, for that matter). Quite the contrary: its 9% appreciation rate in 2013 translated into the city’s largest median price increase in dollar terms ($300,000). However, in the previous year, this district saw year over year median price appreciation of 25%.
Note that median price appreciation does not perfectly correlate to changes in home values, as it can be affected by a variety of market factors. It does give an approximate sense of market trends.
Before we get down to the top 10, I thought you all might like a bit of first hand story to ponder over lunch or dinner with your friends.
This property: 1850 Church, technically in Glen Park, practically in Noe Valley.
It is a top floor, three bedroom, two bath, down to the studs remodel including moving the bedrooms from the back of the house to the front, moving kitchen to the back, blowing out walls, opening up space, adding a deck, and basically making it awesome…and it has two car parking and a yard. For all practical purposes, it’s pretty sweet. It is however bordered by a shack on the right and left of the property, which can either lend to its appeal or detract, depending on your tolerance for jungle overgrowth. But enough about that. What happened?
Listed for $1,195,000, maybe a bit low, but probably pretty fair, all reasonable comps suggested a sales price in the high $1.2s to mid $1.3s. Single family homes are selling for that, and this is a condo! After all the dust settled, there were seven offers. My clients wrote at $1,350,000, my colleague’s clients wrote at $1,410,000 (You doing the math? That’s already $215,000 over asking.), and neither of us won. Go figure. So any day this property is going to close at $1,435,000 with a cash offer that came with zero contingencies, which equates to $240,000 over the asking price, and right into the range of insanity. Exact square footage is not known, but a ballpark would put this property to at least $1000/psf, and at 20% over asking, it doesn’t even get on the top 10 list!
Isolated incident? Sadly no. The pattern is the same. Buyer loses once. Buyer loses twice. Buyer loses three times or more. Buyer gets fed up, goes crazy big, blows our minds, blows everyone else out of the water, and sets the bar that much higher for the next. It’s a vicious cycle we’re in.
In case one anecdotal sale isn’t enough for you, I present San Francisco’s top 10 Overbids of the week.
|2820 Sacramento St 2822||2-4 Units||11||$1,825,000||$2,550,000||39.73%|
|360 Guerrero St||1/1.00/404||11||$599,000||$780,000||30.22%|
|1013 Rhode Island St||2/2.00/N/A||9||$1,099,000||$1,410,000||28.30%|
|125 Bella Vista Way||3/2.00/N/A||42||$749,000||$960,000||28.17%|
|664 Teresita Blvd||2/1.00/N/A||9||$699,000||$891,000||27.47%|
|26 Pleasant St 30||2-4 Units||75||$2,395,000||$3,020,000||26.10%|
|1335 31st Ave||2/2.00/N/A||14||$795,000||$1,000,000||25.79%|
|415 Missouri St||3/1.00/||19||$995,000||$1,250,000||25.63%|
|3380 22nd St||3/1.00/||70||$849,000||$1,060,000||24.85%|
|2446 17th Ave||3/2.00/N/A||15||$729,000||$908,000||24.55%|
So when will this madness end? I’m guessing not anytime soon. I’ve been saying it’s a great time to be a seller, but if you’re a seller needing to buy in San Francisco and stay here, not so fun.
To you out of town readers that have waited for your time to unload your SF property, are you going to keep rolling the dice and bet things get hotter, or get out while the gettin’s good?
July 2013 Special Report
Virtually every area of San Francisco and the Bay Area has been experiencing dramatic home-value appreciation in the past 12 to 18 months. Some that were hard hit by distressed property sales, which experienced the largest price declines, have surged in price but remain 20% – 30% below previous peak values reached in 2006 – 2008. As a state, California is still about 25% below its 2007 pre-crash median home price. And in San Francisco itself, many if not most neighborhoods now appear to have re-attained or moved slightly beyond previous high points.
But in this past quarter, a handful of neighborhoods and districts in the city have leapt well beyond the highest average home values achieved in the past. Interestingly, comparing these white-hot areas with one another, there are often huge differences in property type, era and style of construction, and neighborhood culture or ambiance. But all of them have been very affected by affluent – often newly affluent – high-tech professionals of one age group and level of affluence or another. Naturally, these neighborhoods are highly desired by other buyers too – often professionals in finance, bio-tech, medicine and law – but the high-tech-buyer dynamic has generally super-charged these markets in particular.
However, please note that the difference we’re talking about between these neighborhoods and the rest of the city is between white hot and red hot: Quite honestly, they’re all very hot markets right now.
The Inner Mission
Super hot, super hip, generally young: this neighborhood has seen very dramatic changes since the early nineties as a classic process of gentrification occurred — changes which have recently accelerated. Houses here are often large, classic Victorians, while the condos are mostly modern, built within the last decade or so. This area has a large, vibrant and diverse commercial district centered around Mission and Valencia Streets, but is still close to Noe Valley and the Castro. This chart focuses on the condo market, in which values are approximately 15% above the previous peak.
Noe Valley – Eureka Valley (Castro) – Dolores Heights
These neighborhoods are part of a district that includes Cole Valley, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon & Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Mission Dolores and Glen Park, all of which have seen enormous recent appreciation. Housing here is typically older, built in the first 4 decades of the last century; there are many parks for kids and pets; the streets are tree-lined and the ambiance of the neighborhoods is relaxed and family friendly. This district surged in popularity and price in the mid-late nineties, was one of the last to peak in value in 2008, and has been at the forefront of the market rebound which started early here, in 2011. Among other advantages, it has relatively easy access to highways south to Silicon Valley. The district also has a large condo market, but this chart focuses on house values.
South Beach & Yerba Buena
After the Embarcadero freeway came down in 1991 and then AT&T Park built in 2000, this area changed from a place for B-class offices and car stereo installations to the home of some of the most dramatic and expensive condo and loft buildings in the country. More condos are now sold here than anyplace else in the city and high-floor units with staggering views often sell for millions of dollars – one sold for $28 million. It’s popular with a number of demographics – high-tech and bio-tech workers working in offices nearby in SoMa and Mission Bay, financial district professionals, and empty-nesters who want to enjoy city life and have all the amenities, but without the responsibility of maintaining a house. Affluent foreign buyers are also a significant segment. Its neighborhood ambiance is very urban. This chart is for condos below the price of $1,800,000, but the dynamic for ultra-luxury condos is also white hot, with an average dollar per square foot value of over $1200.
Like Noe Valley and Glen Park, Bernal Heights was originally a blue-collar neighborhood filled with Victorian houses. Noe Valley soared in value first, becoming wildly popular, and now people who want a similar family-friendly neighborhood ambiance, but at a more affordable cost, have increasingly turned to Bernal Heights. It also has easy access to highways south to the peninsula.
Hayes Valley-North of Panhandle (NoPa)-Alamo Square
This condo market is made up of two totally different types: Edwardian flats that have been turned into condos and brand new, ultra-modern condo developments. The Hayes Valley commercial district is very hot and hip, similar to, but still different from the Mission’s Valencia Street. Buyers who are priced out of the nearby Cole Valley-Haight Ashbury condo market often look here for a similar neighborhood ambiance at lower cost. Hayes Valley is also close to the Civic Center cultural cluster of museum, opera, symphony, ballet and other performing arts, which appeals to another buyer demographic as well.
To put all of these charts into one simple suggestion: It’s a great time to sell your property in San Francisco, and our market desperately needs the inventory!
If you have questions or would like information regarding a neighborhood not listed above, please contact us.
This one is hot off the presses. So hot, this property at 235 28th Street in Noe Valley still has dust billowing up around it from the flurry of bidding that just went down.
By all accounts, this is a great, great house. Sure, it needs a little work, but could be really nice and totally livable with ripped up carpet and buffed out floors, new paint (get rid of the wallpaper), and tidy up the yard. It’s actually livable now, but we have champagne tastes like all of you. To take it even further, the house could be expanded down, up and back. Big project for sure, protect that lovely historical facade, dig out the downstairs, add one more parking spot, and go big…and that’s exactly what all of you, dear readers/buyers, can expect to hit the market in or around another year, and expect it to be in the $3,000,000 range.
We just bid on this property, and we lost. Asking $899,000, we bid $1,250,000, we were “in the top four”. Winning bid (hate that word) was $1,300,000, cash, seven day close. That’s $401,000 over asking. Hard to beat. And for our buyers, it’s another one lost. It stings just as bad this time (the 7th) as it did the first.
To all you sellers, we keep saying it’s a great time to sell, are you believing us yet?
-235 28th Street, Noe Valley: 3bd, 1ba, $899,000 [MLS]
-When Someone Else Tells You Our Market Is Hot Will You Listen? [theFrontSteps]
-Telegraph Hill Neighbors: Our Opposition Is Unconditional [theFrontSteps]
Are you, or any of your friends, looking for a single family home in Noe or Cole Valleys (or anywhere in San Francisco for that matter)? Are you getting beat out by multiple offers in the over million dollar price range ($1.5M+), and showing up late to the party? Is your Realtor telling you they’re doing all they can (simply checking MLS everyday, which you can do too), but really not delivering? If so, you’re not alone, and I can help.
Within the past couple of months my buyers and readers have known about dozens of properties prior to them going to MLS. To think I share all of them online with everyone is simply silly. For example, my circle of clients knew about 707 Cole, 1027 Cole, 313 Parnassus, 785 Cole, 1340 Cole, 121 Beulah, 471 Duncan, 2975 Lake, and many more. There are also a dozen or so homes that never even made it to MLS and were shown without a hint of market activity, such as a mid-century home in Noe Valley, a grand, modern home on Sanchez, an AIA tour home in Golden Gate Heights, a penthouse stunner in SOMA, and a few others that I can’t recall the address off the top of my head.
Today, I present to you two more opportunities in Cole Valley, one in Nob Hill, and another on Lake Street not on MLS. Nowhere near MLS in fact. Not on PocketListings.net, not in my pocket, and not even on anybody’s radar. They are all single family homes, and they are all at least 2 bedrooms, and close to or over $1,500,000. They are not fixers, they are done, done, done…or turnkey as we like to say.
If you are interested, or know somebody that might be, you gotta contact me directly (firstname.lastname@example.org), you gotta be unrepresented, and I’m going to ask you to work with me going forward and sign a written agreement confirming exactly that. No co-agents, no “I’ll work with you if you find me the property”, no “let’s try it out on this deal”…none of that. You either marry me as your agent or you don’t. Not sure if you should? Have a look at some recent testimonials I’ve been gathering and come take the plunge.
Like I’ve said, working with and finding a Realtor you like is like dating. If it’s not working out with one, you are free to leave to find another.
I’m also beginning to dabble in Lake Tahoe real estate, so if you’re interested in a second home, ski pad, lake front property, my finger is finding the pulse of that market too (and I know where all the good powder is).
So feel free to give me a shout, and let’s work on getting you ahead of the pack and into the home of your dreams. I’m also happy to help any of you sellers out there sitting on the fence in these markets. It’s a good time to sell in certain areas and certain price-points. I am at your service and available for consultation.
My dear readers,
I continue to give you opportunity after opportunity and you have been great. You have been loyal, you have been kind, you have been my source of income (and food and clothing for my two shining young pains in the ass…I mean sons who I love dearly…but sometimes want to wring their necks.) You have referred friends, you have referred family, you have given me tips on hot (and cold) property, and I greatly appreciate it.
I hope you continue to do so in 2012, as you have done since I started this thing back in 2007, and I hope to continue to give you the goods as I have done since before I launched this blog. (Can you believe I’ve been reporting on real estate since 2004!) I want to continue to give you the inside scoop, with a twist and some flavor, because Lord knows our market is a complete mind thrash, so we might as well have a good laugh along the way.
With that said, I have the scoop on a property in Cole Valley for some of you Cole Valley buyers:
and I also have a scoop on 471 Duncan for all of you Noe Valley buyers.
So if you, or anybody you know, was/is interested in a Single Family in Cole Valley, or took a look at 471 Duncan (or any other Noe Valley Single Family recently), give me a call. Principals only please. (If your agent isn’t digging up this kind of dirt for you, why are you paying them!?)
I look forward to helping you, and everyone you know, buy and sell tons of San Francisco real estate in 2012.
In this season of giving and being thankful, I’d have to say that San Francisco Bay Area residents should be pretty thankful that our market is nowhere near that of the national average. If you’re a seller you can be thanking your lucky stars that buyers are out there in droves, and if you’re a buyer you need not pinch yourself, because yes, interest rates are indeed averaging UNDER 4%, and that is certainly something to rejoice.
The San Francisco Association of Realtors Market Focus Report begins now:
Although these fall months are not typically known for high real estate activity, this year has proven otherwise, with strong pockets of movement occurring throughout the city, keeping the market active during these shorter days. Families have been rushing to purchase and settle into their new homes to prepare for the holiday season and upcoming year.
As the number of homes for sale fell throughout the city by 27.3 percent compared to November 2010, the number of homes under contract this past month rose by 21.1 percent, while the number of homes sold rose by a substantial 22.3 percent. For properties that were priced below $700,000, the months of supply inventory dropped by 67.8 percent to 1.3 months. For properties priced between $700,000 and $1.2 million, the months of supply inventory fell by 12.1 percent to 2.8 months. Readings between one and four months typically indicate a seller’s market, where sellers have more negotiating power over home buyers.
One part of the city which continues to experience healthy sales activity is the central district that provides ample shelter from San Francisco’s famous fog and is one of the city’s sunnier regions. Since November 2010, the number of homes sold has risen considerably by 60 percent to a total of 40 properties. From the colorful neighborhoods of Haight Asbury and the Castro, to the more contemporary and family-friendly Noe Valley, to the posh and upscale Clarendon Heights, this part of the city offers a diverse array of housing opportunities for just about any home buyer.
Another area of the city which saw heightened sales activity is the southern part of the city that stretches from San Francisco City College to beyond Candlestick Park. Compared to this time last year, the number of homes under contract in this district has risen by a whopping 80 percent, while the number of homes sold has increased by 58.3 percent to a total of 57 properties. Some of the neighborhoods in the area, such as the Excelsior and Mission Terrace, offer a suburban feel, easy access to public transportation, and some of the best prices in the city, which makes them great locations for first-time home buyers.
Although the number of condominiums for sale fell throughout the city by 37.2 percent compared to November 2010, the number of condominiums under contract rose by 17.7 percent and the number of condominiums sold increased by 23.1 percent. For condominiums that were priced between $500,000 and $900,000, the months of supply inventory contracted by 61.4 percent to a reading of 2.2 months. For luxury condominiums priced above $900,000, the months of supply inventory decreased, by 49.8 percent to 2.6 months.
One part of the city which experienced a robust increase in condominium sales activity is the central-eastern part of town, whose landscape continues to evolve from its former warehouse and factory occupied streets. Since November of last year, the number of condominiums sold has jumped by 56.4 percent, from 39 units to a total of 61. The central-eastern district includes such neighborhoods as up-and-coming South Beach, home to AT&T Park and some of the most stylish condominiums in the city, as well as SOMA (South of Market) and Yerba Buena, which has seen an infusion of moderately priced condominiums in recent years.
The Conference Board reports that consumer confidence surged in November to its highest level since July, a sign that Americans may be more willing to spend. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index climbed by 15 points in November to 56 points, the highest it has been since a reading of 59.2 this past summer. Although still well below a reading of 90, which indicates an economy on solid footing, the confidence numbers are encouraging.
According to the State Employment Development Department, the statewide and local job outlook continues to improve as California’s unemployment rate dropped for the second straight month in October to 11.7 percent. Bay Area counties were all below the State average, including San Francisco, which dropped to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent the prior month.
As the cost of renting in the city continues to rise, and with the average rent currently at $2,572, more and more people should be considering owning a home. There are a variety of rent vs. buy calculators available online and anyone of them can be used to help with a decision as to whether to rent or buy.
As local tech companies like Zynga and Yelp prepare for initial public offerings, more and more of their employees are looking towards owning a home in San Francisco. Reuters reports that recent competitive bidding in some neighborhoods has pushed home prices up more than 15 percent from last year in some areas such as Noe Valley, SOMA and Potrero Hill.
With the improving economy and surge in pending sales, 2012 is likely to see a stronger San Francisco real estate market than what buyers and sellers have been accustomed to since 2008.
Do you, my dear readers, remember this property I mentioned back in July?
I showed it to a couple of buyers that came forward after that post. It didn’t work for them for various reasons, but at least they came forward and saw the opportunities I’ve been presenting you. The rest of you will now have to fight it out with the masses as the property is now on the MLS and asking $2,150,000.
Do you, my dear readers, remember this post I did back in May?
That was an opportunity to snag 2975 Lake before the rest.
I had four buyers come forward for the opportunity on that property, but it too didn’t work out for them for various reasons. It soon hit MLS for $2,980,000, and was in contract a mere seven days later.
Do you, my dear readers, remember this Fixer of Epic Proportions I featured, and Yahoo! picked up?
I showed it to a couple of developers that came forward, but it too didn’t work out for them for various reasons.
Four days ago I posted about this opportunity in Liberty Heights, and have showed one buyer through the property, as a result. I have this condo for sale at 88 King Street, this one at 200 Townsend, I brought you this fabulous Marina Blvd home, as well as this amazing unit at 200 Brannan, this home in Tiburon, and an entirely new website dedicated to getting you, the buyer and seller, more real estate opportunities to fall in your lap. Is your Realtor working that hard for you?
I have multiple opportunities always on the back burner for multiple buyers and sellers. If you’re ready to work with me, I’m ready to work with you. I would encourage you and your friends/family to contact me before you miss out on another great San Francisco real estate opportunity.
…end shameless self-promotion here.
-Completely Remodeled Noe Valley Home With High Definition Views For Sale [theFrontSteps]
-471 Duncan, Noe Valley [Property Website]
-2975 Lake [MLS]
-Mid Century Modern With An Emphasis On Modern [theFrontSteps]
-88 King Street #206, $849,000 [theFrontSteps]
-200 Townsend #47, $499,000 [theFrontSteps]
-Marina Blvd For The America’s Cup [theFrontSteps]
-200 Brannan [theFrontSteps]