Category Archives: market info

30plus

The 30+ Club

From 333 Grant #707 to 4348 21st St, an $11,000,000 Penthouse at the Four Seasons to a 1 bedroom condo on the 46th Floor of that big ol’ tower by the Bay Bridge, there is a little category out there that is often overlooked and it’s high time it gets the attention it deserves: Properties on the market more than 30 days a.k.a the 30+ Club.

As much as I like to highlight Overbids and Underbids, properties that make the jaw drop, multi-million dollar sales, and my own triumphs, this category should actually get more attention, because if you have a property to sell in San Francisco and it hasn’t sold or gone in contract within 30 days, you’re doing something wrong, and if you’re a buyer continually getting beat out by the other guy, there is opportunity right here under your nose.

So get on the list, and if you’re an agent, send this list to your clients, and let’s help put some of these Stalefish out of their misery.

*This data is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed accurate by the MLS or myself, although it’s pretty damn close to 100%.

-30+ Club: list of properties on the market 30 Days Or More

21-741-18th-ave-windowview-high-res

We Just Beat The Closest Comp By $200,000

I’m pleased to announce my clients have successfully sold their Richmond District top floor condominium for $1,200,000 (listed at $949,000), or as I like to point out, $200,000 more than the most recent, closest competitor property on 26th Ave that listed almost the same day as we did.

It’s no coincidence we knocked it out of the park. It was strategy, patience, perseverance, and knowing how to finesse each offer (we received five) to their highest and best without them walking away. Congratulations to my clients that just set the bar for Central Richmond condos – the last area of the city you can still find a deal. Let the migration begin.

-741 18th Ave, Top Floor, 2+ bedroom, 1.5 bath, 2 parking, Richmond District Condo, listed $949,000, sold for $1,200,000. Seller Representation.

15thkit

$1.6 to $2.2 – $1.2 to $1.6 – $1.6 to $2.3…San Francisco Overbids Continue With No End In Sight

Although I’ve been out and about and trying to enjoy summer, clearly the Overbid factory didn’t get the memo. Check out the most recent craziness, including one architect/owner designed house on 15th Ave that sold almost 40% over asking! To all of those that think things slow down in Summer…think again.

Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
414 Missouri St 4/3.00/N/A 6 $950,000 $1,410,000 48.42%
671 Alvarado St 2/1.00/ 12 $899,000 $1,305,000 45.16%
1426 6th Ave 3/3.00/N/A 13 $1,595,000 $2,300,000 44.20%
609 Precita Ave 2/2.00/N/A 42 $825,000 $1,175,000 42.42%
531 Sanchez St 2/1.00/N/A 8 $995,000 $1,400,000 40.70%
2570 Folsom St 4/3.00/N/A 14 $1,595,000 $2,210,000 38.56%
45 Richland Ave 3/1.50/N/A 10 $650,000 $900,500 38.54%
2628 15th Ave 3/1.50/N/A 12 $849,000 $1,175,000 38.40%
656 Arguello Blvd 2/2.00/3 21 $799,000 $1,104,713 38.26%
80 Jersey St 3/2.00/ 14 $1,195,000 $1,650,000 38.08%

Want the top 20, sign up for sfnewsletter @ sfnewsletter.com.

[Update: Business Insider Just Shared 13 Properties all Selling For $1M or more over...]

Have a great weekend!

8octavia

San Francisco New Developments And Luxury High Rise Condominiums

A Look At Some New Developments Popping Up Around Town

San Francisco median home sales prices have increased dramatically since 2012. Beginning from a low-$600k with an average price per sqft of mid-$500, and then accelerating in the first half of 2013 close to $800k with an average price of mid-$600 per sq ft, to almost $1M mediam home sales price and $800+ per sq ft currently. To say San Francisco and the Bay Area are in the midst of a very dramatic recovery would be considered a very large understatement.

Thankfully, new development is soaring once again, generally in the form of large new condo projects (many of which have already sold out), so if you’re deciding whether to buy a new condo, and paying $1000+ per sq ft for brand new everything, here is a list of the hot new developments that are changing various districts of San Francisco.

The highly anticipated Amero, in Cow Hollow, has 27 Units. Sadly, they’re all sold out before construction completes in Q4 of this year.

amero amerosf.com
But there are other developments which still have available units:

Vida
vida
In the Mission district, Vida has 114 Units, and opened earlier this year, with about 25% sold. Featuring 1 to 2-bedroom units, up to 1,138 sq ft.
vidasf.com

Fifteen Fifteen
1515Also in the Mission, Fifteen Fifteen is a 32-unit building that might have one or two units left. Features studio to 2-bedroom, up to 1,100 sq ft.
1515 street

Toward Mission Dolores neighborhood, there is 35 Dolores, a 33-unit building with an estimated opening in Q3:
35-dolores

8 Octavia
8octavia
Located in the vibrant Hayes Valley, 8 Octavia features hi-tech ammenities including Nest for temperature control, building is wired with high speed internet, and remote doorman service. This is one of the few buildings that has multi-floor penthouses with trendy concrete ceilings. 1 to 3-bedroom penthouse, totaling 40 units. Estimated Opening: Q4
Last time I visited they had only a couple units left, so don’t delay.
8octavia.com

1645 Pacifc
1645_pacific
In Pacific Heights, 39 Units (12 sold). With Estimated Opening in Q4 this year, this building offers junior 1 bedroom to 2 bedroom, up to 1,877 sq ft.
1645 pacific.com

A few blocks south, we have 1450 Franklin, a 67-unit building with estimated opening in Q4:
1450 Franklin

The major developments are all in District 9, which includes Potrero Hill, SOMA, Mission Bay, and Dogpatch.

Onyx
onyx 
Located in the sunny Potrero Hill, Onyx is just steps from an array of cafes, restaurants, galleries, and nightlife. Opened in Spring this year, it is almost sold out. 1 to 2-bedroom, totaling 20 units.
www.onyxsf.com

Arden by BOSA
arden
Built by the developer behind the Madrone and Radiance, Arden is a luxury Condominium by Mission Creek. Some of its perks are the stylish interior design, minutes from the Mission Creek Park, dog park, and downtown. 1 to 3-bedroom, up to 2,300 sq ft. Total units: 263, and already 100 sold
ardenbybosa.com

Lumina and Park 181
lumina
Built by the developer behind the highly successful and iconic Infinity, Lumina (656 units) is one of the new constructions that will be changing SOMA along with Park 181, which is designed by famed architect Heller Manus, the same architect behind Infinity.
park181
Park 181 (67 units) is an ultra luxurious new development that offers great views, as well as many luxury amenities. They are both located right by the new Transbay Terminal and minutes from the Ferry building. 1 to 3-bedroom. Estimated Opening: Q3-Q4
luminasf.com/
park181sf.com/

72 Townsend
72townsend
Adjacent to the historic Condominium conversion at 88 Townsend, 72 Townsend is coming in 2015 and features 1 to 3-bedroom, up to 2,800 sq ft, totaling 74 units. 1:1 parking ratio.

870 Harrison
870harriso
Located in SOMA, Coming in Q4.
870-harrison-street

Millwheel North
millwheel_north
In the already up-and-came Dogpatch, Millwheel North is a two-building condominium project connected via a shared landscaped courtyard. Located across from Progress Park, its perks include proximity to Caltrain and everything that Dogpatch has to offer, including the Pier 70 redevelopment that is scheduled to kick off this summer. 1 to 3-bedrooms, up to 1,710 sq ft, totaling 39 Units. Estimated opening in Q3
millwheelsf.com

That ought to get you started and help you zero in on some of the new developments popping up around town. But these things sell fast (so fast, that our numbers might already be off), so it’s best to have someone on your side. Give us a shout and we’ll get you dialed. If you, or anybody you know, has interest in any of these units, contact us for pricing, more details, and to get you in the door. (Developers and sales offices hold these details close to their chest.)

San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids

From $1,400,000 to $14,000,000 on 25th Ave?! Are you kidding me!? Yes, that’s a typo for sure. Agent error. Fat fingers. Something. It’s not right. But the rest – wow!

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2910 24th Ave 4/2.00/N/A 10 $1,400,000 $14,000,000 900.00%
140 Jerrold Ave 3/1.50/ 7 $215,000 $413,000 92.09%
1725 Kearny St 5 2/2.00/5 14 $1,450,000 $2,450,000 68.97%
2186 14th Ave 2/1.00/N/A 1 $949,000 $1,500,000 58.06%
1574 Innes Ave 2/1.00/N/A 14 $599,000 $915,749 52.88%
2546 McAllister St 2548 2-4 Units 60 $995,000 $1,510,000 51.76%
228 3rd Ave 3/1.00/N/A 12 $995,000 $1,475,000 48.24%
2475 15th Ave 4/2.00/N/A 20 $1,195,000 $1,695,000 41.84%
141 Beaver St 2/2.00/N/A 18 $1,798,000 $2,507,000 39.43%
270 Valencia St 2/1.00/206 13 $648,000 $900,000 38.89%

Have a great weekend.

Don’t forget, we have the full Top 20 on The Goods, and Top 20 Underbids too.

-The Goods, Because your clients deserve better.

436921stknob

Eureka Valley Home Sells For (Gasp!) Almost 20% UNDER Asking?

Here’s a shocker: 4369 21st, a single family home in Eureka Valley that was listed at $1,299,950 just sold for – wait for it – 19.23% UNDER asking. That is correct.
436921stfront
Multiple offers came in, buyers lined up, ultimately a hefty Section 1 pest tab forced the seller to go with the all cash, easy peasy developer deal. Win for the seller – got it sold. Win for the buyer – got a deal. Win for the agent – double ended it.

There you have it, properties do sell under asking. So many, in fact, we also publish a list of the Top 20 Underbids to help you sleep easier at night.

Check back tomorrow for the top 10 Overbids, if you’re so inclined.

-Top 20 Underbids [theGoods-sf.com]

image004

Case-Shiller: New Jump In Bay Area Home Prices

The new S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April 2014 came out today and it showed another bump in home prices for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area. For homes in the upper tier of home values – as most of San Francisco’s are – prices are up approximately 17% in the past 12 months and up 41% since the recovery began in early 2012.

Based upon what we are seeing on the ground in the market, we expect another bump in the May Index, which will come out at the end of July.

image001 image002 image004Be sure to check back on theFrontSteps for future reports as well as all the good stuff you’ve come to love from us – including the top 10 Overbids of the Week, which will come out tomorrow.

USA is through to the next round!!  (Sorry if you had it recorded and I just spoiled.)

San Francisco Flippers Make The Most – Says Redfin

This post comes to you by way of our friends at Redfin. Enjoy –

Waiting for the tech boom to burst? Aiming for that perfect gap to sell and then buy? Real estate cycles takes years, and it’s not for everyone, especially when you don’t have the time or the patience. But if you’re remotely considering flipping houses or simply curious about the numbers, continue reading this Redfin analysis which dug into the flipping market.

By all accounts 2013 was a record year for house flipping in San Francisco, with a monstrous average gain of $194,000 as compared to $90,200 across 25+ major markets.

It’s worth noting that gains are not profits. Home flippers, whether they’re banks, companies or individuals, generally make improvements to a home before selling it. Those improvements can range from simple cosmetic changes to completely gutting an entire home, which makes it difficult to pinpoint actual costs for each of the homes in this analysis. But according to Remodeling Magazine, replacing a door would cost somewhere between $1,000 and $3,000, while a major kitchen remodel could cost $55,000 or more.

Who’s Doing All the Flipping?

Many home flippers before the housing bust were individuals hoping to capitalize on huge price gains leading up to 2006. But after the bubble popped, banks had many foreclosed homes come on the books. By 2008, the majority of flippers were banks, who have since reduced their inventory of distressed housing. In 2013, bank real estate owned (REO) properties fell to their lowest levels since the foreclosure crisis, according to data provider CoreLogic. In 2013, only 35.2 percent of house flips in these markets were bank-owned, compared with 72.2 percent in 2008. This year, bank REOs are up 15 percent, signaling that they may be more active participants in the flipping market in the second half of 2014.

Percentage of Flips that Were Bank-Owned Sales

Gains from House Flipping Vary by Market

In 11 of the markets analyzed, the average gain from a flipped home was well over $100,000. San Francisco (average gain of $194,600), Long Island ($152,500) and San Jose ($152,000) were the three markets where home flippers saw the highest gains. On the other end of the spectrum, home flippers in Atlanta and Las Vegas saw average gains of $50,200 and $53,000, respectively.

Average Gain from Flipped Home Sale by Market

Fewer Homes Being Flipped Than During The Boom

While big gains in home prices have created big opportunities for flippers, the number of homes being flipped is nowhere near the volume of 2005, which was the peak flipping year at 101,800 homes. The largest volume of house flips since the bust occurred in 2012, at 75,500 across Redfin markets.

“In 2005, homebuyers could easily access zero-down financing, which led to heightened activity from amateur investors who bought several homes without any upfront costs, and who planned to resell them at a profit,” said Nela Richardson, Redfin chief economist. “When the market crashed, those buyers were left in a lurch. Today, with low inventory, high demand and stricter mortgage standards, flippers are largely developers, corporate investors and all-cash buyers who are experienced and can act quickly to snatch up properties with flip potential. Unfortunately, high demand and low inventory have also limited the ability of average homebuyers to use sweat equity to renovate a property over several years and make a longer-term financial investment in a home.”

Number of Homes Flipped

Even though fewer homes were flipped last year than in the three previous years, the success rate has been higher. In 2013, 77 percent of homes that were purchased and sold again within 12 months were sold for a gain, while in 2008 roughly the same percentage were sold at a loss. In 2008, only 24 percent of flipped homes were sold for a gain.

Percent of Flipped Homes Sold for Gain or Loss

Some markets are seeing flipping activity increase this year when compared with year-to-date flipping activity last year, including Washington, D.C., Atlanta, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Philadelphia. Los Angeles, Phoenix, Riverside, Calif., Washington, D.C., and Atlanta have seen the most house flipping when 2013 and 2014 are combined.

Level of House Flipping Activity by Market

The Hottest Spots for Home Flipping

We looked at neighborhoods in each market to see where house flippers walked away with the biggest gains in 2013. Two neighborhoods in Washington, D.C.— Petworth and Brookland — were among the top three, with average gains of $312,400 and $271,900, respectively. The Beaumont neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, ranked second, with an average gain of $285,600.

Screen Shot 2014-06-20 at 12.06.43 AM

[Editor's Note: I'd venture to say the real "flippers" in SF are making more than this per flip. Developers I work with won't even touch a property if they can't make at least $500,000 +. Good data to chew on nonetheless.]

overbidnevada

From 32% In NOPA To 65% On Nevada – San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids

It’s Friday, that means it’s time for the Top 10 Maximum Overbids of the week. As usual, there are some doozies, but nothing I would consider ultimate shockers like a few of the last weekly Top 10′s we’ve seen. The number one spot goes to the “Contractor’s Special” on Nevada in Bernal Heights that fetched 65% over (totally in line with market sales price, and not easy to price this type of property). The number 10 spot goes to my clients that finally won after so many years searching – 538 Baker in NOPA that was “only” 32% over asking and the winner out of 15 other offers, two of which were actually higher than ours and all cash. We had a loan. But we “won”.

Anyhow, on with the show. The Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco this past week:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
270 Nevada St 1/1.00/N/A 14 $530,000 $876,000 65.28%
866 Cayuga Ave 4/3.00/N/A 20 $928,000 $1,380,000 48.71%
27 Day St 3/1.00/N/A 43 $895,000 $1,310,000 46.37%
1271 15th Ave 1273 4/3.50/ 13 $1,795,000 $2,550,000 42.06%
307 Parker Ave 3/2.00/N/A 13 $1,250,000 $1,710,000 36.80%
25 Miraloma Dr 3/2.00/N/A 10 $1,050,000 $1,420,000 35.24%
1150 Holloway Ave 2/1.00/N/A 35 $889,000 $1,200,000 34.98%
320 Castenada Ave 3/1.50/N/A 26 $1,695,000 $2,250,000 32.74%
471 Hickory St 2/1.00/N/A 5 $1,060,000 $1,400,000 32.08%
538 Baker 2/1.50/N/A 11 $948,000 $1,250,000 31.86%

On a side note, one of my listings will hopefully be closing today, and believe me when I say we knocked it out of the park. Will we make the Top 10? No, but maybe we’ll scratch into the Top 20.

If you’re curious what your property might sell for, give me a shout.

Have a great weekend!

-Top 20 Overbids Delivered to Your Door (Inbox) [sfnewsletter.com]
-Are Overbids A Result Of Intentional Underpricing? It’s Competitive Pricing [theFrontSteps]
-Top 20 Underbids [sfnewsletter.com]

Case-Shiller_Simpl-Percentages

Recessions, Recoveries & Bubbles

My company just put out some heavy duty data crunching that can shed some light on this recent housing boom. I have put the entire report below. Enjoy and share.

 30 Years of Housing Market Cycles in San Francisco

Updated Report

Below is a look at the past 30 years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, all the way back to the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s. While future cycles will vary in their details, the causes, effects and trend lines are often quite similar. Looking at cycles gives us more context to how the market works over time and where it may be going — much more than dwelling in the immediacy of the present with excitable pronouncements of “The market’s crashing and won’t recover in our lifetimes!” or “The market’s crazy hot and the only place it can go is up!”

Market Cycles: Simplified Overviews 

Up, Down, Flat, Up, Down, Flat…(Repeat)

Case-Shiller_Simplified_from-1984

Case-Shiller_Simpl-Percentages

Smoothing out the bumps delivers these simplified overviews for the past 30 years. Whatever the phase of the cycle, up or down, while it’s going on people think it will last forever: Every time the market crashes, the consensus becomes that real estate won’t recover for decades. But the economy mends, the population grows, people start families, inflation builds up over the years, and repressed demand of those who want to own their own homes builds up. In the early eighties, mid-nineties and in 2012, after about 4 years of a recessionary housing market, this repressed demand jumps back in (or “explodes” might be a good description) and prices start to rise again. It’s not unusual for a big surge in values to occur in the first couple of years after a recovery begins.

Surprisingly consistent: Over the past 30+ years, the period between a recovery beginning and a bubble popping has run 5 to 7 years. We are currently about 2.5 years into the current recovery. Periods of market recession/doldrums following the popping of a bubble have typically lasted about 4 years. (The 2001 dotcom bubble and 9-11 crisis drop being the exception.) Generally speaking, within about 2 years of a new recovery commencing, previous peak values (i.e. those at the height of the previous bubble) are re-attained — among other reasons, there is the recapture of inflation during the doldrums years. In this current recovery, those homes hit hardest by the subprime loan crisis — typically housing at the lowest end of the price scale in the less affluent neighborhoods, which experienced by far the biggest bubble and biggest crash — may take significantly longer to re-attain peak values, but higher priced homes have already done so.

This does not mean that these recently recurring time periods necessarily reflect some natural law in housing market cycles, or that they can be relied upon to predict the future. Real estate markets can be affected by a bewildering number of economic, political and even natural-event factors that are exceedingly difficult to predict.

Mortgage Interest Rates since 1981

It’s much harder to decipher any cycles in 30-year mortgage rates over the same period. Despite the rate spike over the summer, rates remain very low by any historical measure, and this, of course, plays a huge role in the ongoing cost of homeownership.

Average_30-Year_Mortgage-Rates

******************************

In the 2 charts below tracking the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 5-County San Francisco Metro Area, the data points refer to home values as a percentage of those in January 2000. January 2000 equals 100 on the trend line: 66 means prices were 66% of those in January 2000; 175 signifies prices 75% higher.

1983 through 1995 

(After Recession) Boom, Decline, Doldrums

Case-Shiller_HT_1983-95

In the above chart, the country is just coming out of the late seventies, early eighties recession – huge inflation, stagnant economy (“stagflation”) and incredibly high interest rates (hitting 18%). As the economy recovered, the housing market started to appreciate and this surge in values began to accelerate deeper into the decade. Over 6 years, the market appreciated almost 100%. Finally, the eighties version of irrational exuberance — junk bonds, stock market swindles, the Savings & Loan implosion, as well as the late 1989 earthquake here in the Bay Area — ended the party.

Recession arrived, home prices sank, sales activity plunged and the market stayed basically flat for 4 to 5 years. Still, even after the decline, home values were 70% higher than when the boom began in 1984.

******************************

1996 to Present 

(After Recession) Boom, Bubble, Crash, Doldrums, Recovery

Case-Shiller_HT_1996-2011This next cycle looks similar but elongated. In 1996, after years of recession, the market suddenly took off and became frenzied — actually quite similar to what we’re experiencing today. The dotcom bubble pop and September 2001 attacks created a market hiccup, but then the subprime and refinance insanity, degraded loan underwriting standards, mortgage securitization, and claims that real estate never declines, super-charged a housing bubble. Overall, from 1996 to 2006/2008, the market went through an astounding period of appreciation. (Different areas hit peak values at times from 2006 to early 2008.) The air started to go out of some markets in 2007, but in September 2008 came the market crash.Across the country, home values fell 15% to 60%, peak to bottom, depending on the area and how badly it was affected by foreclosures — most of San Francisco got off comparatively lightly with declines in the 15% to 25% range. The least affluent areas got hammered hardest by distressed sales and price declines; the most affluent were typically least affected. Then the market stayed flat for about 4 years, albeit with a few short-term fluctuations. Supply and demand dynamics began to change in mid-2011, leading to the market recovery of 2012.

******************************

San Francisco from 2010 to 2014

A Strong Recovery


Median_SFD-Condo_by-Qtr_Short-term

Case-Shiller_High-Tier_2011

In 2011, San Francisco began to show signs of perking up. An improving economy, soaring rents, low interest rates and growing buyer demand coupled with a low inventory of listings began to put upward pressure on prices. In 2012, as in 1996, the market abruptly grew frenzied with competitive bidding. The city’s affluent neighborhoods led the recovery, and those considered particularly desirable by newly wealthy, high-tech workers showed the largest gains. However, virtually the entire city soon followed to experience similar rapid price appreciation.

San Francisco median home sales prices increased dramatically in 2012 and then accelerated further in the first half of 2013. San Francisco and the Bay Area are in the midst of a very dramatic recovery. Among other positive signs, new home construction is soaring once again, generally in the form of large new condo projects.

******************************

Different Bay Area Market Segments:
Different Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries

1990 to Present

Case-Shiller_3-Tiers_Trends

Again, all numbers in the Case-Shiller charts above relate to a January 2000 value of 100: A reading of 182 signifies a home value 82% above that of January 2000. These 3 charts illustrate how different market segments in the 5-county SF metro area had bubbles, crashes and now recoveries of enormously different magnitudes, mostly depending on the impact of subprime lending. The lower the price range, the bigger the bubble and crash. The upper third of sales by price range (far right chart) was affected least by the subprime fiasco and has now basically recovered peak values of 2006-2007. In the city itself, where many of our home sales would constitute an ultra-high price segment, if Case-Shiller broke it out, many of our neighborhoods have risen to new peak values. The lowest price segment (far left chart), more prevalent in other counties, may not recover peak values for years. If one disregarded the different bubbles and crashes, home price appreciation for all three segments since January 2000 is almost exactly the same, in the range of 75% to 82%.

All data from sources deemed reliable,
but may contain errors and is subject to revision.All numbers are approximate and percentage changes will vary
depending on the exact begin and end dates used.