…and you thought getting beat up in multiple offers was bad.
-Spectacular Shorepound, HI [Surfing]
It’s another Monday, and the madness continues.
|3691 17th St 3693||2-4 Units||16||$1,499,000||$2,200,000||46.76%|
|127 Central Ave 129||2-4 Units||60||$1,200,000||$1,720,000||43.33%|
|152 Hancock St||2-4 Units||26||$1,100,000||$1,557,000||41.55%|
|82 Peralta Ave||3/2.00/N/A||28||$998,000||$1,380,000||38.28%|
|1628 York St||3/2.00/N/A||17||$1,095,000||$1,458,000||33.15%|
|130 Randall St||3/1.50/N/A||7||$1,195,000||$1,575,000||31.80%|
|325 Precita Ave||3/2.00/||18||$925,000||$1,216,000||31.46%|
|327 Richland Ave||3/1.00/N/A||35||$749,000||$980,000||30.84%|
|4430 Cabrillo St||2-4 Units||14||$925,000||$1,200,000||29.73%|
|1108 Cabrillo St||3/1.50/N/A||11||$1,295,000||$1,677,000||29.50%|
[Copyright ©2013 TheGoods-SF.com. Visit www.thegoods-sf.com for more information. Data feed from SFAR MLS deemed accurate but not guaranteed.]
Some overbids that were featured last week are still on this list until they get knocked off.
To answer some questions that popped up in the comments of our last overbid post about intentional underpricing to generate overbids…yes, there is certainly a lot of that out there, but there is also a lot of uncertainty as to what is a correct market price for any particular property when comps continue to escalate. And yes, there are agents that intentionally underprice, not in an effort to be fair and competitive for the market, but in an effort to boost their personal marketing strategy, and that’s just plain wrong.
The name of the game in our market is when you have doubts, price it low and let the buyers set the price. It’s almost always better to price low than high. However, what’s more interesting to us is not the amount over asking a property sells, but the number of offers that come in to generate such a fever pitch. We wish MLS had a metric requiring agents to post the number of offers that came in when a property sells, but who knows if that would ever happen. In any given overbid situation, you can assume there would be at least four to five offers. That seems to be a good average, but really it only takes two offers to drive the price up, and you certainly don’t need 20 offers. That means in any given multiple offer situation, one person wins, many lose, so when another similar property ultimately hits the market in a week or two after that, add another new buyer or two to the interest, multiple offers happen again, one person wins, many lose. Repeat over and over again and you see how prices get bid up, and frustration grows to the point where a buyer that has lost out several times in a row ultimately says, “Eff it! We’re going to win this one, so we’re going big.” They finally win. They become the Maximum Overbid of the Week, and they could care less. The feeling of relief is indescribable for many buyers. All of the searching, the reviewing disclosures, the inspections, the loan pre-approvals, the touring open homes, the emotional thrill of thinking you found your home, then depression of seeing it slip away, all of that is done and gone. As a buyer, you can prevail, and there are strategies to increase your chances of success.
As a seller, it’s not as relaxing as you might think, and it can be stressful rolling the dice and asking for more from buyers that are already offering waaaay more than you expected. Even more stressful is getting a pre-emptive offer and having the nagging thought in your head of whether you could get better than that bird in hand if you wait and get to your offer date. It’s a fine line between getting greedy and getting burned, but it certainly provides for good party conversation, which is why we provide this stuff to you!
As a bystander, blame should not be placed on the shoulders of Realtors claiming they intentionally underprice to generate overbids. The goal of listing property for sale is to get sellers the maximum amount of money possible. Currently, creating an environment that will generate multiple offers for a seller is what works, and it works well. We’ve been blogging about the real estate market long enough to know that the majority of comments against overbids come from bystanders, or buyers that continually get beat up…and it’s frustrating. We know all too well. But as a seller, we have yet to meet one that is unhappy with 15 offers (all over asking), many of them waiving inspections, and many of them cash that can close in five days. Regardless of how much over, under or at asking a property sells…it ultimately sells at market price.
So let the overbids continue, let our market climb, let our economy flourish, let jobs be created! San Francisco is on fire and there really is no place like it…so like a favorite band of ours says, “Embrace the Chaos”. Extra points if you know the band….
Happy Monday! Get back to work.
Well now that we have the government shutdown (temporarily) behind us, let’s get back to the market at hand. It would appear there is a bit of a calm washing over our waters, but open house activity is still through the roof, so we might indeed be stuck in this craziness for a while. Case in point, San Francisco’s most recent Top 10 Overbids.
Rank| Address | Property Type | Bed/Bath | DOM | Asking Price | Sale Price | % Over
#1-709 York St: Single-Family; 2/2.00; 10 DOM; $799,000; $1,150,000; 43.93%
#2-152 Hancock St: 2-4 Units; 26 DOM; $1,100,000; $1,557,000; 41.55%
#3-82 Peralta Ave: Single-Family; 3/2.00; 28 DOM; $998,000, $1,380,000; 38.28%
#4-514 Precita Ave: Single-Family; 2/1.00; 11 DOM; $925,000; $1,255,000, 35.68%
#5-130 Randall St: Single-Family; 3/1.50; 7 DOM; $1,195,000; $1,575,000; 31.80%
#6-3901 17th St: 5+ Units; 28 DOM; $2,300,000; $3,025,000; 31.52%
#7-327 Richland Ave: Single-Family; 3/1.00; 35 DOM; $749,000; $980,000; 30.84%
#8-515 Powhattan St: Single-Family; 2/1.00; 13 DOM; $708,000; $925,000; 30.65%
#9-4430 Cabrillo St: 2-4 Units; 14 DOM; $925,000; $1,200,000; 29.73%
#10- 1108 Cabrillo St: Single-Family; 3/1.50; 11 DOM; $1,295,000; $1,677,000; 29.50%
[Copyright ©2013 TheGoods-SF.com. Visit www.thegoods-sf.com for more information. Data feed from SFAR MLS deemed accurate but not guaranteed.]
This data set reflects properties that got into contract on average 30+ days ago, so it will be interesting to see how this continues. We look forward to providing this information to you every Monday, now that the Goods has made it easy for us to share it, so come on back!
This is a very unnerving set of data. Let’s hope it’s too small a timeframe to give an accurate assessment, but we could very well be on the cusp of a drastic shift in the market if the Government doesn’t pull their head’s out of their a$$es and get back to work!
Short period data often doesn’t tell the whole story, so we dug a little deeper to see how October 2012 played out, and you’ll see absorption (properties accepting offers) hovers in the 9-11% range. Therefore, a dip down to 6% is a bit concerning.
[Click Image to Enlarge]
Buyers get ready. This might be your time to finally get in the market without any competition. Sellers, don’t panic. There are still plenty of buyers out there that want your property, just get ready to negotiate rather than having your cake and eating it too.
San Francisco real estate weathers market storms much better than the rest of the nation, we have a true supply/demand problem here, we’re surrounded by water, in most neighborhoods building over 40 feet is prohibited, and our city really doesn’t like to approve development, so as long as people still want to be here, companies continue to innovate, we think we’ll do just fine. But who knows. This government shutdown thing certainly isn’t helping anybody out.
Think positive thoughts….
I am pleased to announce the launch, and early adoption by Paragon Real Estate Group, of the newest addition to the San Francisco real estate scene “The Goods“, real estate marketing made simple.
The goal of this new offering is to make it easy for real estate agents in the San Francisco/Bay Area to provide their clients with what they need, and should expect, from their agent…time sensitive, factual, market data that pertains to the area in which their property is located, or the area where they would like to be. We’d like to put an end to unnecessary print marketing (think of the trees!), stop the sending of mugshot branded magnets, notepads, Zagat Guides, coffee mugs, and all the other crap clients don’t need, or necessarily want from their real estate agent. Keep in front of your clients with valuable real-time market data they can use.
The Goods will provide your company with a new link every two weeks to newly listed, as well as recently sold property data your clients can browse by location, property type, price, beds, baths and DOM. You can include the link in your marketing pieces, and also receive a raw html snippet/preview of the data to include in your marketing, inviting your clients to click through and track sales in their area.
Paragon Real Estate Group is the first to adopt and use this great new product for their agents’ clients, and positive feedback is already rolling in.
-The Goods is a terrific tool for our agents to deliver to our clients: It’s fast and easy to use and it provides our clients with extremely timely and valuable information about new listings and what’s selling in the market, which is at the top of the list of resources our clients want most from us. -Patrick Carlisle, Chief Marketing Analyst, Director of Business Development, Paragon Real Estate Group
In this age of Zillow, Trulia, Redfin, and the countless apps hitting the market which afford your clients the luxury of tracking the market without your help, you can’t afford to let this opportunity slip you by. Brokers of every company in the Bay Area should be jumping on this offering, as simply put…it’s a no-brainer.
For more information about The Goods, visit www.theGoods-SF.com.
Imagine an Outer Sunset made up entirely of sand dunes, streetcars repurposed as oceanfront homes and clubhouses, bohemians having all-night parties that include midnight swims in the icy Pacific and this:
Charles Depew, late of Saginaw, Michigan, built 1626 Great Highway in 1908, minus an architect but likely inspired by Bernard Maybeck. The three-flat building, known as “The Moss Flats,” has survived long enough to join the National Register of Historic Places, decades after the last of its colorful, ramshackle neighbors dissolved into dust. It’s on the market, listed for $1.349 by similarly old San Francisco school agency Barbagelata.
Outside are the maybe-Maybeck-inspired shingles; inside are three two-bedroom tenant-occupied flats decorated in surfer chic:
Plus ocean views from the top-most unit. Longtime owners, plus longtime rental units, plus longtime exposure to salty ocean air may be a caveat in this case, but assuming the owner of the last standing evidence of Carville has no immediate plans to sell, this is your best chance to get into a pre-Doelger Outer Sunset historic property, steps from the beach and with a steady, proven income flow.
-Article by Larry Rosen: Contributing writer and San Francisco local sharing his thoughts with theFrontSteps.
First and foremost, any home purchased needs to work as a home: it fulfills your housing needs at an affordable monthly cost – ideally, a cost, after tax deductions and principal pay-down, less than or similar to that of renting the property. However, though it cannot be compared on an apples-to-apples basis to investments such as stocks, bonds and CDs (that you don’t live in), it’s worth looking at the issue of homeownership as a financial investment as well.
Home-Price Appreciation vs. CPI Inflation since 1988
This chart compares, over 25 years, the amount of inflation per the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to price appreciation for high-price-tier homes in the 5-county San Francisco Metro Area per the Case-Shiller Index. (Most of the City of San Francisco’s housing is in the high-price tier, the upper third of Bay Area unit sales.) In this chart, 1988 equals a price-value of 100; 127 equals a price 27% higher than the price in 1988 for the same goods or house. CPI inflation is relatively slow and steady: the average across the past 25 years is a little less than 3% per year. Home prices, however, jump dramatically up (appreciation) and down (depreciation) depending on the market cycle, but average appreciation from 1988 to mid-2013 was about 5% per year – though this calculation can vary greatly by the exact start and end dates chosen.
An average SF Metro Area home purchased in 1988 appreciated by 244% as of July 2013, while the overall CPI inflation rate was 97%. If the home had been sold at the recent bottom of the market, the difference would have narrowed to 165% appreciation vs. 95% inflation. Purchase and sell timing always matters and if one has to sell at the bottom of the market, it affects the return on any investment. As the chart illustrates, home-price appreciation usually outpaces inflation by a significant margin over the longer term: this is a good thing for homeowners and doesn’t include other benefits such as living in the property and the capital gains exclusion on the sale of a principal residence.
This analysis applies well to homes purchased with all cash and no financing. Leverage alters the picture substantially.
Leverage (Financing), Inflation and Home Equity Growth
If one leverages one’s home purchase by taking out a loan, then the growth in one’s home equity dramatically outpaces inflation over the longer term. For the sake of simplicity, in the example above, we’ll assume that home price appreciation and inflation both run at 3% per year, and that the buyer put down 20% in cash plus closing costs, and financed the remaining 80% with a 30-year fixed rate loan. In this scenario, each year that the inflation/ home appreciation rate is 3%, one’s home equity asset grows by about 15%, plus the principal repayment on the outstanding loan (which is a major component – like a forced savings account – in the growth of equity over time). Indeed, the higher the inflation rate, the greater the equity growth. If home price appreciation outpaces inflation as well – as it has over the past 25 years – that accelerates the increase in home equity further. Moreover, the financing cost is currently subsidized by the mortgage interest tax deduction, if that applies to your financial situation.
This is why, using reasonable leverage, real estate is typically considered a good long-term investment – short-term can be much riskier – as well as an excellent hedge against inflation. Of course, if leverage is abused as it was in the years of subprime lending, underwriting standards decline, predatory lending and home-refinancing frenzy (i.e. “using one’s home as a piggy bank”), other risks arise.
In earlier times, when people didn’t move around as much, one bought one’s home, paid it off over the years and when retirement came, had a home owned free and clear – a huge financial asset to be used as appropriate.
Ongoing Homeownership Costs vs. Rental Costs over Time
In this chart, the increase in the annual cost of homeownership with a fixed-rate loan is compared with the increase in rent at a 3% inflation rate, and the increase in rent of a home subject to San Francisco rent control, where annual rent increases are limited to 60% of CPI. As seen, if one locks in a fixed mortgage interest rate, the increase in ownership cost is limited to the increase in property tax costs (limited under Prop 13) and maintenance expenses, while the entire rental cost may be subject to annual raises. Over the longer term, one’s ownership costs become more and more attractive when compared to rental housing costs subject to inflation. If one owned the home for the full 30-year loan period, the monthly mortgage payment itself would disappear.
We have generated two sample rent vs. buy scenarios for San Francisco here:
And you can perform your own rent vs. buy scenario calculations here, using your own financial circumstances, assumptions and projections: Rent vs. Buy Calculator
Important caveats: Trying to compare buying a home to other financial investments on an apples-to-apples basis is impossible, because there are so many other variables at play: the use and enjoyment of the home, how the cost of homeownership compares to renting, physical condition decline over time (without further investment), risks and returns on other types of investments, home tax deductions, the capital gains exclusion on profit from a principal residence sale ($250k for single owner/ $500k for couple), market timing and other factors. All the analyses above are simply sample scenarios, looking at homeownership from a number of angles using a variety of assumptions. It is unknown whether they will apply to future trends.
As said in the first line of this report, first and foremost, any home purchased needs to work as a home: it fulfills your housing needs at an affordable monthly cost. If that’s where you start, with a fixed rate loan, and you don’t refinance out growing home equity, and you don’t have to sell during a market downturn (which, admittedly, isn’t always possible to avoid), then you should come out all right and more often, very well.
These analyses were performed in good faith, but may contain errors, are not warranted and should not be exclusively relied upon. Tax law and other factors referred to are subject to change. All information provided herein should be carefully reviewed according to your own circumstances, plans and economic projections with a qualified financial adviser and loan agent.