I don’t have time to specifically back up my assertion, but I’ll state it anyway: “the middle market has been about absent from the radar since the spring 2006″ (I’m not sure about the exact date – but its when there is no move-in property in the sold lists in the 1.2-1.7 range -> this was creating even more problem, the few houses in that range being snapped way over a reasonable value)

the whole foundation of a good data representation is when the Gauss is looking like a
[img]http://static.daysofwonder.com/lang/english/images/gf_ranking5.gif[/img]
not like
[img]http://ninaherenorthere.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/twin_peaks-san_francisco.jpg[/img] —> everything breaks, from average to median to dispersion of the data etc… Stats require to have more than 2/3 of the sample data in the close range of the median.

I’m not saying that the post is not GREAT – I just find it difficult to use it as the only chart into making any analysis or prediction for NoeValley.
as usual, if you need some hard core data regarding one specific market (to sell or buy), only an experienced agent in that market will be able to sort data out to get you a reasonable but tailored data sample to help you nail down a property value or value change

PS: for the fun of it, I visited a property asking 40% more than 2.5years ago when I put it at – 5% – a 45% difference! (and no, it should be nowhere to -30%)
PS2: re a 30% drop. if this is indeed a FACT – then give me specific properties that were at X and are at Y today (same property) – and vice versa, properties that are at Z and would have had an asking of W then.
example: if 123 TheFront street closes today at 1.7M. Would that property have been at 2.4 in that month/year?
if 456 Steps street closed 2 years ago at 2.4, would that property be asking/closing today 1.7?

this is very different from 2008 only sells 2+M houses while 2004 only sold 695 asking 850 closing houses. Those houses are not the same houses – nor the same market nor the same buyers nor anything in common.

http://www.pegasusventures.net/wordpressblog/2009/05/06/noe-valley-postscript-median-price-chart/

I’ve looked (again) at sales for March 2008 and I don’t see anything unusual or aberrational about them. I’ve also looked at sales for October 2007, as you suggested, and I note that there were only 6 sales, so if anything drawing a median from that month is more questionable because there are less data points.

I’ve sent Alex another chart that simply plots median prices (rather than % change). Hopefully he’ll post it. IMO it shows a pretty clear trendline up in prices from Feb 2006 through March 2008, notwithstanding a significant dip during the Fall of 2007.

Anyway, I’m done with Noe Valley for now. Moving on to another subdistrict. It’s always good to have a tough interlocutor — keeps you honest!

Noe has not fallen by 30 %. I specifically looked at March 2008, because that’s the departure in your chart. Eleven sales was probably a decent enough figure for the time, but the cluster of high end sales produced a distorted statistic. And you are on this very thread saying that the trend was since last March. It’s not. Look at October 2007 versus now, for example.

If I were looking to dispute the 30% fall in Noe Valley values, I think I’d probably be looking at different price segments of the market and trying to differentiate between, say, what’s happened to homes that were selling for over $2 million, vs. those (were there any?) that were selling in the $1.5 million range.

Seb, I’m going to stick my neck out and say that –barring a global economic melt-down (I’d put the chances of that at less than 10%) — prices will be higher. Why? A. People have short memories. B. There is or will be pent-up demand. C. San Francisco’s denizens — and certainly those that can afford to live in Noe Valley — are relatively well-placed to ride out the rough economy and be on the front end of its recovery.