Comments on: Reader Reports: San Francisco Median & Average Home Prices 2000 versus 2008

By: karl curran

karl curran — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 04:32:39 +0000

these are wise words, Credit card lines are getting cut by the big banks. under new regulation the banks have to be able to collateralize their outstanding loans, so they are cutting their credit card lines. to most americans who delay payment of bills by credit card , this will be like a pay cut. SF is not immune to this process, i understand that there are good business’s in sf , like yahoo, who just cut revenue by 78% year on year, hmm a few less porsches running around i bet, GUYS SF is not London, not the same draw, see you down there

By: Rob

Rob — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 07:28:25 +0000

Analyze it all you want… SF prices are going to continue to slide – end of story. The city has been insulated from the decline in property values until now. I encourage everyone to just wait…. and wait and sooner or later they’re all going to have to give on the price…

By: misha weidman

misha weidman — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 22:04:41 +0000

Fluj: a propos of “people don’t really need to sell.” This is one of the takeaways in a generally depressing article in last Sat’s NY Times, which I quote on my own blog here: http://www.pegasusventures.net/wordpressblog/2009/03/09/more-grim-news-on-housing/

It describes urban markets like SF and NY, which heretofore have been holding up reasonably well, as “frozen.”

As for buyer reality, what happens in depressed markets like these is that the good properties continue to command high prices and the rest get knocked down or withdrawn. The values are in the “B” houses, not the A’s. But most clients still want the A’s even if they say they’ll settle for a B.

By: fluj

fluj — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:51:27 +0000

You’re dead on it, Steve. The thing that’s tripping us all up is that people really don’t need to sell. I think the reset tsunami thing has been met by government, so I personally rule that factor out. So now it’s jobs, almost purely. We’ve seen a few here and there that have needed to sell. But so far the commensurate demand has so far let them off the hook pretty easy.

And again, I look at my 600K or under marching orders from one client. At this moment in time one cannot get a single family home in a safe neighborhood near transit for 600K or under. It isn’t really all that close, either. A ten percent shift from right now still might not even do it.

By: steve

steve — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:39:25 +0000

fluj, we see some of the same things, and I find your characterizations of the market to be helpful and accurate.

I look at what is happening to the economy in general, and tech specifically, and then I think about changes related to financing, and I wonder how could a $2M house from last summer not be $1.5M by Fall.

stiil, I agree that the chart does not reflect the reality in my price range, as you suggest. but, my point was that if enough buyers believe it does (or it will soon), it must become reality for someone needing to sell.

the great unknowns are: how much pent up demand is there (with the resources to act on it) and how many folks will have circumstance changes that require them to sell.

By: fluj

fluj — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 19:08:07 +0000

Underestimate? I’m not sure I underestimate it, Steve. I am butting my head up against it daily. It’s my reality and I do not underestimate its power.

If you don’t mind my asking, where are you looking? And for what, precisely? I feel as if there has to be some relative value in that range at this point. But then again, that price range is probably the least effected price range, ~2M. If you listen to the internet posters, they’d have you believe that peak market $2M houses can now be had for 1.5M. But you and I both know that is very much not the case. I point to that house at 1470 Noe street that Moises Alou previously owned. Three apples to apples sales in the past four years, and it’s off by maybe 5% at most. Don’t know what it’ll sell for, but it got into contract after a flat two weeks.

By: dothemath

dothemath — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 18:39:13 +0000

The market has already moved one way or the other, surely? and yes, the direction is down.

By: steve

steve — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 18:20:27 +0000

Been there — just I am expecting the market to move one way or the other by Fall. I’m betting the direction is down, but I could be wrong and prices might have recovered, hence, “buyers will be regretting opportunities lost.” Didn’t mean to be cryptic.

By: Been there

Been there — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 18:14:18 +0000

steve – curious to know what you mean by “I’d rather take my chances in the Fall, when either buyers will be regretting opportunities lost… “

By: steve

steve — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 18:11:50 +0000

fluj, I think you underestimate the role CW plays in buyer psychology. I willing to buy up to $2M. Up to $1.3M I can close in 3 days, so I think I am the buyer many sellers are dreaming of in this market. However, unless I see a 2003/2004 price (or an amazing story associated with an amazing property about why it is worth more), there is no way I’ll buy right now. I’d rather take my chances in the Fall, when either buyers will be regretting opportunities lost or sellers will realize that the Spring bounce didn’t.

I’m sure I’m atypical, but there is too much data to suggest that prices will have to drop in all districts for me to ignore it.