Comments on: Open House Traffic Only Visited By Those Sensing Foreclosure http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/ Real Estate, Insight, Statistics, Gossip, & News...With a Twist and Some Flavor Thu, 09 Feb 2012 04:27:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Sammy http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7725 Sammy Tue, 27 Jan 2009 21:00:09 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7725 wow! the folks at socketsite lifted my market views! "SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009" wow! the folks at socketsite lifted my market views! “SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009″

]]> By: misha weidman http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7724 misha weidman Tue, 27 Jan 2009 19:25:36 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7724 Do the math: yes, I'll be happy to share the numbers with you. Send me your email address to misha@pegasusventures.net. I was surprised by the numbers too. They were pulled, laboriously, month by month from MLS monthly published data. The major drop-off in Absorption Rate in December is, I believe, primarily a recurring seasonal phenomenon as opposed to indicating any real strengthening in the market, plus the fact beginning and end of chart are not averaged over several months to account for seasonal fluctuations as the middle of the chart is. Overall, the chart does in fact show that absorption rate (measured in weeks) in 2008 is higher than in 2007, which is consistent with your observations on more listings and less sales (though the net differences are not huge). Do the math: yes, I’ll be happy to share the numbers with you. Send me your email address to misha@pegasusventures.net. I was surprised by the numbers too. They were pulled, laboriously, month by month from MLS monthly published data. The major drop-off in Absorption Rate in December is, I believe, primarily a recurring seasonal phenomenon as opposed to indicating any real strengthening in the market, plus the fact beginning and end of chart are not averaged over several months to account for seasonal fluctuations as the middle of the chart is. Overall, the chart does in fact show that absorption rate (measured in weeks) in 2008 is higher than in 2007, which is consistent with your observations on more listings and less sales (though the net differences are not huge).

]]> By: do the math http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7720 do the math Tue, 27 Jan 2009 17:14:43 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7720 Misha..that graph... you have an absoroption rate for dec 2008 as below that for 2007 and 2006. I find that very surprising, given that a) inventory is higher in 2008 than 07 and 06 and b) sales are lower in 2008. care to share the data behind the graph, and your assertion that "it really doesn’t look like inventory/sales rate has slowed AT ALL. In fact the contrary is true" Thanks Misha..that graph…
you have an absoroption rate for dec 2008 as below that for 2007 and 2006.
I find that very surprising, given that
a) inventory is higher in 2008 than 07 and 06 and
b) sales are lower in 2008.
care to share the data behind the graph, and your assertion that
“it really doesn’t look like inventory/sales rate has slowed AT ALL. In fact the contrary is true”
Thanks

]]> By: Sammy http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7719 Sammy Tue, 27 Jan 2009 14:22:07 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7719 I want to correct myself on the unemployment numbers. The 7.2% unemployment rate was for the month of Dec, release in Jan. For that same month, the unemployment rate in Cali was 9.3%! I want to correct myself on the unemployment numbers. The 7.2% unemployment rate was for the month of Dec, release in Jan. For that same month, the unemployment rate in Cali was 9.3%!

]]> By: Sammy http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7718 Sammy Tue, 27 Jan 2009 14:16:26 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7718 Kelley- Those numbers don't look too bad, but I would be careful about chronology. I think there was a significant leg down in the economy that started in September/October in financial markets that probably only hit general consumer sentiment in Nov/Dec. So I would like to see similar numbers for closings in the months of Jan and Feb and those going forward, where the bids would probably be made 30-60 days prior. National unemployment surveys came in at 7.2% this month and are projected to go up to 8.5% in a few months. California is typically 1.5% over the national average. I don't think that bodes well for home prices. I don't think people buy homes if they're fearful of not having a job. All of this said, I am in the market for a home :) Kelley- Those numbers don’t look too bad, but I would be careful about chronology. I think there was a significant leg down in the economy that started in September/October in financial markets that probably only hit general consumer sentiment in Nov/Dec. So I would like to see similar numbers for closings in the months of Jan and Feb and those going forward, where the bids would probably be made 30-60 days prior. National unemployment surveys came in at 7.2% this month and are projected to go up to 8.5% in a few months. California is typically 1.5% over the national average. I don’t think that bodes well for home prices. I don’t think people buy homes if they’re fearful of not having a job. All of this said, I am in the market for a home :)

]]> By: Kelley http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7714 Kelley Tue, 27 Jan 2009 03:52:15 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7714 That has not been my experience at all. People that have been coming through my open houses are upbeat and hopeful. Hopeful because for the first time in a long time home prices are coming within their reach. Here is a link to a city-by-city chart of the market that I serve: http://www.kelleyeling.com/Nav.aspx/Page=%2fPageManager%2fDefault.aspx%2fPageID%3d977686 And here is a link to recent historical sales including the average sales price and number of homes sold: http://kelleyeling.wordpress.com/2009/01/17/marin-county-ca-home-sales-chart-2001-2008/ I will have average sales price and number of homes sold from 1965-2008 soon, so check back. That has not been my experience at all.

People that have been coming through my open houses are upbeat and hopeful. Hopeful because for the first time in a long time home prices are coming within their reach.

Here is a link to a city-by-city chart of the market that I serve:

http://www.kelleyeling.com/Nav.aspx/Page=%2fPageManager%2fDefault.aspx%2fPageID%3d977686

And here is a link to recent historical sales including the average sales price and number of homes sold:

http://kelleyeling.wordpress.com/2009/01/17/marin-county-ca-home-sales-chart-2001-2008/

I will have average sales price and number of homes sold from 1965-2008 soon, so check back.

]]> By: fluj http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7712 fluj Mon, 26 Jan 2009 23:59:23 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7712 Could be re: spring. Because layoffs + lending + huge inventory would probably slay the beast. That's IF within that huge inventory there is included a great many who have to sell. Tons of internet posters have called for the stampede to be Alt-A and ARM resets. Clearly the USG is trying to prevent that eventuality. But the last week or two has appeared different to my eyes. Maybe it was the Obama bounce! Maybe it will be short lived. I really don't know. Then again, these layoff announcements today don't seem to bode well at all for the short term. Could be re: spring. Because layoffs + lending + huge inventory would probably slay the beast. That’s IF within that huge inventory there is included a great many who have to sell. Tons of internet posters have called for the stampede to be Alt-A and ARM resets. Clearly the USG is trying to prevent that eventuality.

But the last week or two has appeared different to my eyes. Maybe it was the Obama bounce! Maybe it will be short lived. I really don’t know. Then again, these layoff announcements today don’t seem to bode well at all for the short term.

]]> By: Sammy http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7708 Sammy Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:47:39 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7708 fluj, i agree with you on the one-off cases...those will always be there and make people wonder if its all about to turn. But the general trend is that people are getting/going to get laid off, they aren't getting paid as much, and banks aren't lending, and all of this will not change without strong government intervention. And even with Uncle Sam stepping in (and they already have to some extent in the mortgage market when you saw 30Y fixed at 4.75% a month ago), the effects will take a while to manifest. So if the market is thin and very little inventory comes this spring, it really could be a boon for headline real estate values. But if that isn't the case (and i don't want to sound like a downer), it's going to be a stampede...get out of the way. fluj, i agree with you on the one-off cases…those will always be there and make people wonder if its all about to turn. But the general trend is that people are getting/going to get laid off, they aren’t getting paid as much, and banks aren’t lending, and all of this will not change without strong government intervention. And even with Uncle Sam stepping in (and they already have to some extent in the mortgage market when you saw 30Y fixed at 4.75% a month ago), the effects will take a while to manifest. So if the market is thin and very little inventory comes this spring, it really could be a boon for headline real estate values. But if that isn’t the case (and i don’t want to sound like a downer), it’s going to be a stampede…get out of the way.

]]> By: misha weidman http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7706 misha weidman Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:15:52 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7706 I agree with tFS: there's plenty of activity going on out there. I just published a post on my blog that looked at Absorption Rates (basically available listings inventory divided by sales) for SF single family homes over the last 2 years and the results are really surprising. First, despite the doom and gloom, it really doesn't look like inventory/sales rate has slowed AT ALL. In fact the contrary is true. Secondly, there doesn't appear to be ANY correlation between absorption rate and price. Even when there's a lot of stuff on the market relative to sales rates, it doesn't appear to result in softening prices. I have various theories about why this might be. The post, including a chart, is here: www.pegasusventures.net Bottom line for me is that SF is such a constrained market in terms of relative supply that there are "enough" people looking to buy to keep the market relatively sound. I agree with tFS: there’s plenty of activity going on out there.

I just published a post on my blog that looked at Absorption Rates (basically available listings inventory divided by sales) for SF single family homes over the last 2 years and the results are really surprising. First, despite the doom and gloom, it really doesn’t look like inventory/sales rate has slowed AT ALL. In fact the contrary is true. Secondly, there doesn’t appear to be ANY correlation between absorption rate and price. Even when there’s a lot of stuff on the market relative to sales rates, it doesn’t appear to result in softening prices. I have various theories about why this might be. The post, including a chart, is here: http://www.pegasusventures.net

Bottom line for me is that SF is such a constrained market in terms of relative supply that there are “enough” people looking to buy to keep the market relatively sound.

]]> By: fluj http://thefrontsteps.com/2009/01/26/open-house-traffic-only-visited-by-those-sensing-foreclosure/comment-page-1/#comment-7702 fluj Mon, 26 Jan 2009 21:21:05 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/?p=3950#comment-7702 “But listing is one thing, and selling another.” Yeah, Sammy, we agree there. There are a lot of weird things happening right now. An 825K 3/2 in Bernal on Peralta just got overbids last week. People see that and they scratch their heads. Because it's a fact that the lending shakeup has created a stalemate. The trend is down, but by how much? I honestly think if lending somehow turned around we would see a spring bounce of sorts. February doesn't feel like it's going to be as bleak as December, which was better than November. “But listing is one thing, and selling another.”

Yeah, Sammy, we agree there.

There are a lot of weird things happening right now. An 825K 3/2 in Bernal on Peralta just got overbids last week. People see that and they scratch their heads. Because it’s a fact that the lending shakeup has created a stalemate. The trend is down, but by how much? I honestly think if lending somehow turned around we would see a spring bounce of sorts. February doesn’t feel like it’s going to be as bleak as December, which was better than November.

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