So we got this little text come across our channels yesterday and we thought we’d share it with you.
The Dow is going to drop to 7500 (at least) next year. It’s going to get uglier before it gets better. The hedge funds have yet to implode, and while not as damaging as the big time investment banks, it’s still going to bring the market down further. This is from a [higher up at a higher up bank…not currently going under].
Believe it or not? One thing is for sure, it’s a great time to be a buyer.
Have a good weekend, voting starts next week for our Sexiest Realtor, so make sure to check back on Monday, and feel free to buy a t-shirt for your friends in real estate.
Well the good news is that the (higher up at a higher up bank….not “currently” going under) is wrong (and is still likely to go under).
Yes–bankers are afraid of fear itself and are not lending, despite drawing close to $340 billion of taxpayers funds, but the DOW will not drop to 7,500 next year (Q: are we back to trusting bank execs?).
We are witnessing the early signs of a dramatic reflation and stabilization. Would agree that the economy and real estate are still 12-18 months away from a meaningful recovery (as measured by volume, pricing, dollar strength, GDP, etc..), but the financial markets are firming, liquidity is improving, and early Fed and Treasury actions are now translating into lower rates and the return of all-important risk taking (the future impact of Hedge Fund implosions will be minor–please focus on Bay Area technology firms–these will be key).
Next: an angry congress and a second wave of tax incentives will force our fearful bankers into lending again and the ‘real’ buyers will return (“wait-and-see” becomes “now-or-never”).
It’s still early, but patience and due diligence will be rewarded. Have faith, stick to your plan(s), and ignore the bank execs at all costs (don’t lend them money either).
I’ll just note that the Dow’s 52 Week low 7392 so your friend (tipster) is already wrong about his / her low projection. Although I agree 2009 is going to be a very bad year for all things that look like a market-based investment. Hedge funds are already failing, more banks will be failing, VC/PE are likely going to further batten down the hatches. The biggest burn for the market next year will be the further implosion of more real-estate value, continued foreclosures, record unemployment and massive credit card defaults leading to all kinds of bad stuff. Poor Obama, what a mess he’s inheriting.
The SF Gate Article today on the SF RE market is worth a read if only to hear the local market folks acknowledge that the market is down and the referee’s count is a “1”. The calls for 09 rebound are a little premature IMO. I think these articles with people trying to call the bottom are hysterical. The bottom is very far away and wishing it to get better sooner than later isn’t going to help.
Good time to be cash rich and opportunistic.
All about borrowing as much money as one can and buy buy buy! Inflation will come in a couple years, and u want to leverage up to the hilt and take advantage of overextended borrowers now.
LOL, Uberalles. Nice troll!
Here’s my vote for Kenneth Floojster as sexiest realtor.
Count it…
Why doesn’t anyone post to this site anymore?
[Editor’s note: Because you’re comments and insight are so good, we’re leaving it up to you.]
I am reminded of this art, via Conan O’Brien
http://www.cubscast.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/sullivan4.gif
Eddy, you are right, I was the anonymous tipster and misquoted my friend. He said the Dow will reach 6000 next year, not 7500. Besides my anonymous friend, an article in this week’s Barron’s predicts the imminent implosion of hedge funds as well. If interested, the article entitled “Hedge Funds Meet Their Match: Many hedge funds won’t survive 2009…” can be found here:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123094644823550755.htmlmod=b_hps_9_0001_b_this_weeks_magazine_home_left