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	<title>Comments on: Stats &amp; Numbers: Single Family Homes 8/07 vs. 8/08</title>
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	<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/</link>
	<description>Real Estate, Insight, Statistics, Gossip, &#38; News...With a Twist and Some Flavor</description>
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		<title>By: NoeValleyJim</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5560</link>
		<dc:creator>NoeValleyJim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Sep 2008 17:09:30 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>What&#039;s District 11?



[Editor&#039;s note:  Don&#039;t know.  LOL!  Just Kidding.  San Mateo County...think Daly City.  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.reineckandreineck.com/reineck/maps/realestatemaps/sfassociationrealtors/SFARSanFranciscoMap.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Check this map&lt;/a&gt;.]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What&#8217;s District 11?</p>
<p>[Editor's note:  Don't know.  LOL!  Just Kidding.  San Mateo County...think Daly City.  <a href="http://www.reineckandreineck.com/reineck/maps/realestatemaps/sfassociationrealtors/SFARSanFranciscoMap.pdf" rel="nofollow">Check this map</a>.]</p>
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		<title>By: Alex</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5559</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:13:01 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>good question.  When I get a moment I can look into it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>good question.  When I get a moment I can look into it.</p>
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		<title>By: PaulG</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5558</link>
		<dc:creator>PaulG</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:07:31 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>The months of supply number seems odd.  If you just divide the units for sale by the number sold, you find the ratio for the city as a whole changing from 4.5 months to 5.2 months (an increase of 15%). But the ratio is unchanged at 3. The way they get to 3 is that they calculate the months of supply as (995 - # withdrawn) / # into contract.



Does anyone know if the number withdrawn is very high or the number going into contract is very different from the number sold. Assuming it&#039;s the latter, it would be very interesting to know if the ratio of number &quot;sold&quot; to number clearing escrow has changed in the last year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The months of supply number seems odd.  If you just divide the units for sale by the number sold, you find the ratio for the city as a whole changing from 4.5 months to 5.2 months (an increase of 15%). But the ratio is unchanged at 3. The way they get to 3 is that they calculate the months of supply as (995 &#8211; # withdrawn) / # into contract.</p>
<p>Does anyone know if the number withdrawn is very high or the number going into contract is very different from the number sold. Assuming it&#8217;s the latter, it would be very interesting to know if the ratio of number &#8220;sold&#8221; to number clearing escrow has changed in the last year.</p>
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		<title>By: do your math</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5557</link>
		<dc:creator>do your math</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 18:58:16 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>No, these are definitely SFH only.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, these are definitely SFH only.</p>
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		<title>By: anon8mizer</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5556</link>
		<dc:creator>anon8mizer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 18:13:05 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I think the data represents a combined figure for single family homes, condos, and 2-4 units. See the first paragraph.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the data represents a combined figure for single family homes, condos, and 2-4 units. See the first paragraph.</p>
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		<title>By: do your math</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5555</link>
		<dc:creator>do your math</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 17:58:10 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>OK fluj thanks thats interesting. I wasn;t suggesting that prices had fallen 20%, just that the YOY median was down by that much.

which is why I asked. Its easy for one months figures to be affected my mix, particularly for just one district with 20 or so sales. d9 will have alot of variety in the type/quality of house I guess.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OK fluj thanks thats interesting. I wasn;t suggesting that prices had fallen 20%, just that the YOY median was down by that much.</p>
<p>which is why I asked. Its easy for one months figures to be affected my mix, particularly for just one district with 20 or so sales. d9 will have alot of variety in the type/quality of house I guess.</p>
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		<title>By: kenneth kohlmyer</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5549</link>
		<dc:creator>kenneth kohlmyer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 17:19:36 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>D9 prices down 20% ? This chart is for SFRs, right?



Where? What? We just saw a house on Folsom and 21st get into contract instantly for at least $1.475M.  What I&#039;m seeing is that any good Mission house is gone in a few weeks. That&#039;s something that has really blown my mind, to be honest. You would think the Mission would be suffering at this stage.



I look at Bernal Heights right now and I don&#039;t see a single house for sale that&#039;s in the &quot;best of Bernal.&quot; I can elaborate on that if you like.



Potrero Hill? We can examine each of the six SFRs on the market if you like. Instead I suggest watching what happens with 958 Carolina street. It will be interesting to follow because it&#039;s a great house on the wrong side of the hill. Another one to watch over there is 2145 18th. They&#039;re asking $2.145 for 18th and Vermont.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>D9 prices down 20% ? This chart is for SFRs, right?</p>
<p>Where? What? We just saw a house on Folsom and 21st get into contract instantly for at least $1.475M.  What I&#8217;m seeing is that any good Mission house is gone in a few weeks. That&#8217;s something that has really blown my mind, to be honest. You would think the Mission would be suffering at this stage.</p>
<p>I look at Bernal Heights right now and I don&#8217;t see a single house for sale that&#8217;s in the &#8220;best of Bernal.&#8221; I can elaborate on that if you like.</p>
<p>Potrero Hill? We can examine each of the six SFRs on the market if you like. Instead I suggest watching what happens with 958 Carolina street. It will be interesting to follow because it&#8217;s a great house on the wrong side of the hill. Another one to watch over there is 2145 18th. They&#8217;re asking $2.145 for 18th and Vermont.</p>
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		<title>By: do your math</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5554</link>
		<dc:creator>do your math</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:36:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I agree fluj I was just illustrating the idea that gearing means it doesnt take much of a fall to wipe out three figures.

But back to the data - we know d10 has been bad for a while but this month looks really bad for d9. The first time I think its been the case.

A one off blip or have things really turned bad there? I mean, its down over 20% YOY..</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree fluj I was just illustrating the idea that gearing means it doesnt take much of a fall to wipe out three figures.</p>
<p>But back to the data &#8211; we know d10 has been bad for a while but this month looks really bad for d9. The first time I think its been the case.</p>
<p>A one off blip or have things really turned bad there? I mean, its down over 20% YOY..</p>
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		<title>By: fluj</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5553</link>
		<dc:creator>fluj</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:30:58 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&quot;so if you had 200k - bought an 800k house. that is now worth say 700k.

lost 100k.&quot;



Lots of different maths going on here. Your &quot;math&quot; is based on the following pre-supposition: the home where we assume the people reside was purchased in 2005-2007, and is on the market now. Most people look at longer time horizons when they buy r.e. in which they actually reside. Think five to 10 years, minimum, not one to three.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;so if you had 200k &#8211; bought an 800k house. that is now worth say 700k.</p>
<p>lost 100k.&#8221;</p>
<p>Lots of different maths going on here. Your &#8220;math&#8221; is based on the following pre-supposition: the home where we assume the people reside was purchased in 2005-2007, and is on the market now. Most people look at longer time horizons when they buy r.e. in which they actually reside. Think five to 10 years, minimum, not one to three.</p>
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		<title>By: asad</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/09/10/stats-numbers-single-family-homes-807-vs-808/comment-page-1/#comment-5552</link>
		<dc:creator>asad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:16:34 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Also not everyone invested in the US market, banks overseas pay a lot more interest than banks here, add in the difference in currency values and you are a lot better off investing in the past year than buying.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also not everyone invested in the US market, banks overseas pay a lot more interest than banks here, add in the difference in currency values and you are a lot better off investing in the past year than buying.</p>
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