Stats & Numbers: Single Family Homes 8/07 vs. 8/08

From the SFAR Advantage Online:

click for larger image

click for larger image

NUMBER OF UNITS is the equivalent of number of sales/transactions. For condominiums, each unit is treated as a sale. For 2- to 4-unit buildings, the “building” is treated as a sale.

NUMBER SOLD is the number of properties in the market segment that closed escrow during the month.

NUMBER FOR SALE is the number of active properties on the market for one day or more during the month.

MEDIAN PRICE (SOLD) reflects the “middle” price point of a group of properties that have successfully closed escrow on a monthly basis, i.e. half sold for more and half sold for less than the median price. Tracking the movement of median prices over time provides a good indicator of the direction market forces are moving.

If the percentage change is positive between the two periods then there is upward pressure on prices in that market segment. If the percentage change is negative between the two periods then there is downward pressure on prices in that market segment.

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) reflects how long it has been taking (on average) to draw an offer on a reasonably priced property exposed to the market. The AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET is defined as: The average number of days it took all of the properties that went under contract during the period to accept a first position offer.

MONTH’S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) is a measure of how long it would take, in months, to sell the existing inventory at the current sales rate for the specific neighborhood and property type. The MONTH’S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY is defined as: The number of active properties on the market for one day or more during the month, less the number of properties that have been withdrawn or expired, divided by the number of properties that have gone under contract during the month.

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Data provided by Terradatum. For additional information about market statistics and/or additional information about Terradatum’s products and services, please call Terradatum at 1-888-212-4793 Ext. 2 or send e-mail to info@terradatum.com.

[District Map, Tour de San Francisco (real estate) by Districts]

12 thoughts on “Stats & Numbers: Single Family Homes 8/07 vs. 8/08

  1. Dang, I feel so bad for renters who are saving and investing their difference in this stock market! I think the average person is down 15-30% this year, while rents continue to head up.

    What are people doin to survive?! Bloody landlords!

    I know some rich property owners who are using irrelevant comps in their neighborhood to actually lower their property taxes, those tricky B’s!!

  2. Have you seen that price data?

    Down over 20% YOY in d9 as well now, over 10% in sunset.

    remember gearing

    so if you had 200k – bought an 800k house. that is now worth say 700k.

    lost 100k.

    invested 200k in market – lost 15% – lost 30k

    plus an extra what?? 3 or 4k in rent absolute max – alot less due to rent control.

  3. Also not everyone invested in the US market, banks overseas pay a lot more interest than banks here, add in the difference in currency values and you are a lot better off investing in the past year than buying.

  4. “so if you had 200k – bought an 800k house. that is now worth say 700k.

    lost 100k.”

    Lots of different maths going on here. Your “math” is based on the following pre-supposition: the home where we assume the people reside was purchased in 2005-2007, and is on the market now. Most people look at longer time horizons when they buy r.e. in which they actually reside. Think five to 10 years, minimum, not one to three.

  5. I agree fluj I was just illustrating the idea that gearing means it doesnt take much of a fall to wipe out three figures.

    But back to the data – we know d10 has been bad for a while but this month looks really bad for d9. The first time I think its been the case.

    A one off blip or have things really turned bad there? I mean, its down over 20% YOY..

  6. D9 prices down 20% ? This chart is for SFRs, right?

    Where? What? We just saw a house on Folsom and 21st get into contract instantly for at least $1.475M. What I’m seeing is that any good Mission house is gone in a few weeks. That’s something that has really blown my mind, to be honest. You would think the Mission would be suffering at this stage.

    I look at Bernal Heights right now and I don’t see a single house for sale that’s in the “best of Bernal.” I can elaborate on that if you like.

    Potrero Hill? We can examine each of the six SFRs on the market if you like. Instead I suggest watching what happens with 958 Carolina street. It will be interesting to follow because it’s a great house on the wrong side of the hill. Another one to watch over there is 2145 18th. They’re asking $2.145 for 18th and Vermont.

  7. OK fluj thanks thats interesting. I wasn;t suggesting that prices had fallen 20%, just that the YOY median was down by that much.

    which is why I asked. Its easy for one months figures to be affected my mix, particularly for just one district with 20 or so sales. d9 will have alot of variety in the type/quality of house I guess.

  8. The months of supply number seems odd. If you just divide the units for sale by the number sold, you find the ratio for the city as a whole changing from 4.5 months to 5.2 months (an increase of 15%). But the ratio is unchanged at 3. The way they get to 3 is that they calculate the months of supply as (995 – # withdrawn) / # into contract.

    Does anyone know if the number withdrawn is very high or the number going into contract is very different from the number sold. Assuming it’s the latter, it would be very interesting to know if the ratio of number “sold” to number clearing escrow has changed in the last year.

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