Comments on: Stats & Numbers: Condos May ‘07 versus May ‘08

By: fluj

fluj — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 16:50:54 +0000

That’s what I meant, look at my point about 1 br sales in District 7.

And again, look at the 30 or more samplesets.

By: missionite

missionite — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 16:43:01 +0000

Fluj,Once again (and hopefully for the last time?) a few high or low end sales will not “skew” the median. In fact they won’t affect the median at all. Not one tiny bit. The median is completely immune to the vaccilations of both the high and the low end of the market.

What DOES affect the median is changes in volume and the overall mix of what’s selling. As I have pointed out it is possible for every single house in a market to decline in value and as long as sales volume drops more on the low end of the market then the top end the median price will rise despite the average going down. Conversely it is possible for every house in a market to gain in value and as long volume is up, and the biggest gainers in volume are on the low end, the median price will actually drop despite the average price and value going up.

Obviously this diminishes the value of median price as a data point if there are big differences in value and changes in the mix with regards to sales volume. I believe this is the case currently in SF and so I am not paying very close to medians unless I see big swings (such as we saw with SFH’s a couple weeks ago).

Maybe that’s what you meant but I have to speak up and clarify for the benefit of those that might draw an erroneous conclusion from your comment.

By: 40YrOldRenter

40YrOldRenter — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 00:11:09 +0000

Can you believe the pain renters are in in SF though? I mean, they see rental prices go up, and are losing their shirts in the stock market!!!

By: Sparky

Sparky — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 18:25:12 +0000

SIgn me up for the fluj fanclub, but only if it runs his greatest hits from SS, and the bashfest that he get’s over there.

By: Attitude of Gratitude

Attitude of Gratitude — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:04:40 +0000

Fluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuj! your view w/explanation is MUCH APPRECIATED!

[Editor's note: An admirer of the Fluj perhaps? Fluj fanclub site coming soon. I can see it now...]

By: ouch!

ouch! — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 23:20:56 +0000

I stand corrected

By: fluj

fluj — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 18:55:42 +0000

Two thousand seven and 2008 look similar. You said “most.” Why? Half of the districts — that’s 5 out of 10 — have higher a higher median in May 2008. Count it.

Secondly, only three Districts have sales volume the even allows for the term median to begin to make sense, and that’s barely. There is supposed to be a sampleset of at least 30.

Of the districts with 30 or more sales, for both years, there’s only 5, 7, and 9. Of those three 5 and 9 actually have higher medians.

Third, do you really think District 7 condos are down nearly 200K this year? I don’t. 2008 saw more 1 br or smaller sales, for one thing.

Last, look at YoY so far. That’s more telling. If this trend stays like this for another few months then things will get interesting. Right now it’s like one month up, one month down. The number of sales are too few. YoY, dollars per square foot, District 7 condos are selling for $35 a foot more than they were last year.

By: ouch!

ouch! — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 18:42:01 +0000

actually, wait a sec. The areas with more condos 5,6,7,8,9 seem to be holding quite well. I was jumping to conclusions. Is it true the other areas don’t have many condos and therefore looking at median isn’t much of an indicator? Are you a realtor fluj?

By: ouch!

ouch! — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 18:38:02 +0000

fluj,

similar to what? I see the median down in most areas of the city. I don’t really count the ones that have one or two sales, but the ones with 20+ seem pretty significant to me. Wouldn’t you agree?

By: fluj

fluj — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 18:29:19 +0000

If this looks bad to you, can you please explain why? I need to understand. Because any one of these can be skewed by several very expensive or cheaper sales. It looks remarkably similar from where I’m sitting.