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	<title>Comments on: Weekly Fluj: Inventory, is there a lot of it?</title>
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	<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/</link>
	<description>Real Estate, Insight, Statistics, Gossip, &#38; News...With a Twist and Some Flavor</description>
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		<title>By: eddy</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4666</link>
		<dc:creator>eddy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 May 2008 22:45:35 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Link:  http://activerain.com/blogsview/218640/How-to-Use-the</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Link:  <a href="http://activerain.com/blogsview/218640/How-to-Use-the" rel="nofollow">http://activerain.com/blogsview/218640/How-to-Use-the</a></p>
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		<title>By: paco</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4665</link>
		<dc:creator>paco</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 May 2008 22:31:19 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>good points sophie (bravo!)



inventory of cookie cutter suburban tract houses and onerinconhill condos are relevant only when you are actually in the market for that product.



stated another way-  i don&#039;t care how many soma lofts are on the market b/c it does not materially affect the availability or price of the sfr market in d7.



or as Jules says in pulp fiction &quot;sewer rat could taste like pumpkin pie and i still would&#039;nt eat that filthy mfcker&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>good points sophie (bravo!)</p>
<p>inventory of cookie cutter suburban tract houses and onerinconhill condos are relevant only when you are actually in the market for that product.</p>
<p>stated another way-  i don&#8217;t care how many soma lofts are on the market b/c it does not materially affect the availability or price of the sfr market in d7.</p>
<p>or as Jules says in pulp fiction &#8220;sewer rat could taste like pumpkin pie and i still would&#8217;nt eat that filthy mfcker&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: eddy</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4664</link>
		<dc:creator>eddy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 May 2008 22:15:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/?p=1522#comment-4664</guid>
		<description>Inventory Months is a fairly easy statistic to calculate.  It&#039;s generally the number of active listings at a point in time divided by the number of pending sales at that point in time.  This gives you a sense of sales activity over a period of time and how long it would take for all the inventory to deplete assuming a consistent rate of closing.  I imagine it would be hard to calc the number accuratley in SF since houses tend to close pretty quick so you might take the total number of pending transactions in a 30 day period.



Sometimes referred to as absorption rate -- here is a more detailed post on the topic.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Inventory Months is a fairly easy statistic to calculate.  It&#8217;s generally the number of active listings at a point in time divided by the number of pending sales at that point in time.  This gives you a sense of sales activity over a period of time and how long it would take for all the inventory to deplete assuming a consistent rate of closing.  I imagine it would be hard to calc the number accuratley in SF since houses tend to close pretty quick so you might take the total number of pending transactions in a 30 day period.</p>
<p>Sometimes referred to as absorption rate &#8212; here is a more detailed post on the topic.</p>
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		<title>By: Sophie</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4663</link>
		<dc:creator>Sophie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 May 2008 21:08:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/?p=1522#comment-4663</guid>
		<description>eddy. do you mean the health of the stale fish inventory?



Alex, can we have a current list?

On that list, I&#039;d list the same invotenry as above (upping the price to 1.5 as many fish go stale &quot;just because&quot; they are overpriced) and compare to same last year.

not sure there is so much of it.



think of buying a bathing suit. Inventory is large ENOUGH when you can have several choices in your size, several colors to pick from - and from the 5 to 10 you try on, you can actually find one that is not too expensive, about the color/style you wanted AND that you dont look fat in it.

Translated to RE market, inventory is large ENOUGH when you can have several choices in your price ranges, several neighborhoods to pick from - and from the 5 ti 10 you visit and have a FAIR chance to make an offer (that takes any pending, high flying and other off market deals), you can actually find one that is not too expensive (ie your budget wont crash within 6 months), about the style/features/size you wanted AND that you can make your home in (like you&#039;ll feel ok, safe, proud etc to live in).



And as I feel about the market, there is NO inventory right now. NONE. I&#039;m not saying that there are no good houses, or no deals, and that no buyer can be happy. I&#039;m just saying that many people are not buying what they choose, but rather the less worse choice left on the shelf. (in the best case, the only problem being that it&#039;s more expensive that they should afford)



Inventory is when you have time to visit the houses on the market and decide for yourself which one is the first choice, and which one is worth your time of making an offer. Lack of inventory is when you depend on Alex pocket listings to actually have a chance to visit something before it flies the &quot;pending&quot; sign on the door.

Lack of inventory is when you have a specific list of criterias, and only one property a year fits the list - creating the urgency to buy, the urgency to overbid, and high prices.



Reasonable inventory is when you have 2-5 such properties a year. So if you miss that one, you can reasonnably wait for the next one. And right now, there is a good portion of the districts that see only a couple of properties coming on the market each year. (GGHts, WestP to name only two).

SF is not a big even suburb where you can live anywhere save transportation differences. Districts are different, offer different property types and are not exchangeable.

So when you look for a SFH in district 1, you might extend to district 2 - but certainly not to district 4, 8 or 9. So it&#039;s not the total of 85 which matters, but the breakdown written by fluj.





Or to have another take on the question. There will be inventory when talks will REQUIRE to specify &quot;which&quot; property or &quot;which&quot; address you talk about. Right now, I can say &quot;THE&quot; so and so house, and everybody will know exactly which one it is - simply because it&#039;s the only one on the market. (and the &quot;normal&quot; properties move/sell faster than the buzz can travel across the city)



[&lt;strong&gt;Editor&#039;s note&lt;/strong&gt;: Well said Sophie!]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>eddy. do you mean the health of the stale fish inventory?</p>
<p>Alex, can we have a current list?</p>
<p>On that list, I&#8217;d list the same invotenry as above (upping the price to 1.5 as many fish go stale &#8220;just because&#8221; they are overpriced) and compare to same last year.</p>
<p>not sure there is so much of it.</p>
<p>think of buying a bathing suit. Inventory is large ENOUGH when you can have several choices in your size, several colors to pick from &#8211; and from the 5 to 10 you try on, you can actually find one that is not too expensive, about the color/style you wanted AND that you dont look fat in it.</p>
<p>Translated to RE market, inventory is large ENOUGH when you can have several choices in your price ranges, several neighborhoods to pick from &#8211; and from the 5 ti 10 you visit and have a FAIR chance to make an offer (that takes any pending, high flying and other off market deals), you can actually find one that is not too expensive (ie your budget wont crash within 6 months), about the style/features/size you wanted AND that you can make your home in (like you&#8217;ll feel ok, safe, proud etc to live in).</p>
<p>And as I feel about the market, there is NO inventory right now. NONE. I&#8217;m not saying that there are no good houses, or no deals, and that no buyer can be happy. I&#8217;m just saying that many people are not buying what they choose, but rather the less worse choice left on the shelf. (in the best case, the only problem being that it&#8217;s more expensive that they should afford)</p>
<p>Inventory is when you have time to visit the houses on the market and decide for yourself which one is the first choice, and which one is worth your time of making an offer. Lack of inventory is when you depend on Alex pocket listings to actually have a chance to visit something before it flies the &#8220;pending&#8221; sign on the door.</p>
<p>Lack of inventory is when you have a specific list of criterias, and only one property a year fits the list &#8211; creating the urgency to buy, the urgency to overbid, and high prices.</p>
<p>Reasonable inventory is when you have 2-5 such properties a year. So if you miss that one, you can reasonnably wait for the next one. And right now, there is a good portion of the districts that see only a couple of properties coming on the market each year. (GGHts, WestP to name only two).</p>
<p>SF is not a big even suburb where you can live anywhere save transportation differences. Districts are different, offer different property types and are not exchangeable.</p>
<p>So when you look for a SFH in district 1, you might extend to district 2 &#8211; but certainly not to district 4, 8 or 9. So it&#8217;s not the total of 85 which matters, but the breakdown written by fluj.</p>
<p>Or to have another take on the question. There will be inventory when talks will REQUIRE to specify &#8220;which&#8221; property or &#8220;which&#8221; address you talk about. Right now, I can say &#8220;THE&#8221; so and so house, and everybody will know exactly which one it is &#8211; simply because it&#8217;s the only one on the market. (and the &#8220;normal&#8221; properties move/sell faster than the buzz can travel across the city)</p>
<p>[<strong>Editor's note</strong>: Well said Sophie!]</p>
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		<title>By: fluj</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4662</link>
		<dc:creator>fluj</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 May 2008 17:53:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/?p=1522#comment-4662</guid>
		<description>Yeah, but Eddy, people like living here and that is the affordable range for a broad swath of San Franciscans.



Somebody answered your particular question in an article I read the other day. I&#039;ll try to see if I can find it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, but Eddy, people like living here and that is the affordable range for a broad swath of San Franciscans.</p>
<p>Somebody answered your particular question in an article I read the other day. I&#8217;ll try to see if I can find it.</p>
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		<title>By: eddy</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4661</link>
		<dc:creator>eddy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 May 2008 16:50:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/?p=1522#comment-4661</guid>
		<description>Fuj, all you did is prove that there aren&#039;t a lot of &#039;starter&#039; homes.  And by started, I in no way mean to imply that $1.5M is &#039;starter&#039; for anyone.  I&#039;m not disagreeing with your analysis but the point is skewed a bit IMO.  By &#039;lot&#039; of inventory, I think it phrase means that there is a greater amount of properties that are not selling.   I&#039;m more interested in the traditional statistics like How many Weeks or Months of inventory are we seeing on the market?  And how does that compare versus what we&#039;ve seen during the boom years?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fuj, all you did is prove that there aren&#8217;t a lot of &#8216;starter&#8217; homes.  And by started, I in no way mean to imply that $1.5M is &#8216;starter&#8217; for anyone.  I&#8217;m not disagreeing with your analysis but the point is skewed a bit IMO.  By &#8216;lot&#8217; of inventory, I think it phrase means that there is a greater amount of properties that are not selling.   I&#8217;m more interested in the traditional statistics like How many Weeks or Months of inventory are we seeing on the market?  And how does that compare versus what we&#8217;ve seen during the boom years?</p>
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		<title>By: 40YrOldRenter</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4660</link>
		<dc:creator>40YrOldRenter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 May 2008 11:45:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/?p=1522#comment-4660</guid>
		<description>Great stuff Fluj!  It&#039;s tough to find anything decent for $1.5-2mil in D7 to be frank.  This range use to be quite common back in 2005, but not any more.  You&#039;ve got to spend about $2.3+ to get something decent now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great stuff Fluj!  It&#8217;s tough to find anything decent for $1.5-2mil in D7 to be frank.  This range use to be quite common back in 2005, but not any more.  You&#8217;ve got to spend about $2.3+ to get something decent now.</p>
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		<title>By: fluj</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4668</link>
		<dc:creator>fluj</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 May 2008 20:10:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/?p=1522#comment-4668</guid>
		<description>OK,



For condos there are 41 listings using the same metric. As you might expect other &#039;hoods have opened up.



1. 9 Richmond. Three east of Funston.

2.  10 Sunset -- this is quite pricy for a Sunset condo, right?

3.  1 -- Lake Merced hill, 1900 feet for 775K

4.  4 here, all large Diamond Heights with big views

5. 7 here. Ranging from 795K on Oak in the Haight to  three ~1.2M condos, one each in Ashbury Terrace, Dolores Heights, and Noe Valley.

6. 3 here. 856 Baker is pretty nice, reduced from $1.2M to 1.095M.

7. One, 2413 Franklin for 899K -- this is a fixer in shell condition

8. one, 950 Columbus # 17 1776 sq ft for 975K.

9. 4, one Bernal and three Potrero Hill.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OK,</p>
<p>For condos there are 41 listings using the same metric. As you might expect other &#8216;hoods have opened up.</p>
<p>1. 9 Richmond. Three east of Funston.</p>
<p>2.  10 Sunset &#8212; this is quite pricy for a Sunset condo, right?</p>
<p>3.  1 &#8212; Lake Merced hill, 1900 feet for 775K</p>
<p>4.  4 here, all large Diamond Heights with big views</p>
<p>5. 7 here. Ranging from 795K on Oak in the Haight to  three ~1.2M condos, one each in Ashbury Terrace, Dolores Heights, and Noe Valley.</p>
<p>6. 3 here. 856 Baker is pretty nice, reduced from $1.2M to 1.095M.</p>
<p>7. One, 2413 Franklin for 899K &#8212; this is a fixer in shell condition</p>
<p>8. one, 950 Columbus # 17 1776 sq ft for 975K.</p>
<p>9. 4, one Bernal and three Potrero Hill.</p>
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		<title>By: fluj</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4669</link>
		<dc:creator>fluj</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 May 2008 19:39:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/?p=1522#comment-4669</guid>
		<description>Yeah, SFHs.



3 br 2 ba condos would be really pricey and few, no? I&#039;ll have a look if you like.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, SFHs.</p>
<p>3 br 2 ba condos would be really pricey and few, no? I&#8217;ll have a look if you like.</p>
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		<title>By: Craig</title>
		<link>http://thefrontsteps.com/2008/05/23/weekly-fluj-inventory-is-there-a-lot-of-it/comment-page-1/#comment-4667</link>
		<dc:creator>Craig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 May 2008 18:41:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/?p=1522#comment-4667</guid>
		<description>Was this for SFHs?  If so, the results are not that surprising for the &quot;central areas&quot; such as D6-8.



Perhaps, if this was the case, a search for condos specifically would be interesting as well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Was this for SFHs?  If so, the results are not that surprising for the &#8220;central areas&#8221; such as D6-8.</p>
<p>Perhaps, if this was the case, a search for condos specifically would be interesting as well.</p>
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