This time we take from Eddy!, who we have never met in person, but who continues to impress. His comment was in yesterday’s post, “Isolated Panic amongst some San Francisco Realtors or something larger“:
I’m a renter who made the conscience decision to NOT buy — I’m well financed and consider myself reasonably knowledgeable on the subject of real estate. I make no claims or long term predictions about the market, but I do state my opinion from time to time and am more than willing to state my opinion publicly on the subject.
Anyway, I chose not to rent as I felt pretty strongly that the market was due to correct on some level. I’m not a long term owner in SF and couldn’t justify the potential transaction cost losses due to owning over a short term (i.e., commission & transfer tax). I also feel that most anyone that bought on margin was looking at financial ruin in the event that the market did correct.
I’ve no idea if we’re correcting or not as I’m astounded at the properties that are flying off the market. But I feel pretty good about my decision to not buy although I’m fairly certain that most of the properties I looked at are worth more now than they were 24 months ago — but not enough to offset transaction cost losses.
Bottom line… there are a lot of balls still in the air as it related to real estate broadly and San Francisco specifically. That said, the buyers are out there, myself included, and I tend to agree with Alex in that a well priced listing will not last long on the market. I suspect the low ball offers are probably on the horizon if they haven’t already started coming in to listing agents. ???
Great choice of words and observations. Funny thing is, even when the market was through the roof and 10 offers was considered average, there were ALWAYS low ball offers on every property. Our market today is no exception. So let’s say we all get some balls and make some offers!
I don’t find the comments of the poster particularly insightful or helpful. Sounds like more statements of the obvious and the repetition of the “Gee, it’s hard to predict the market.” In any market some will choose to rent and some will choose to buy. The greatest impact to the market in the short to medium term has more to do with the lending situation and its artificial dampening of demand. The only thing interesting about the market in its current state is the fact that it is a demand shock (to real estate) that was caused by a supply shock (money from willing and able lenders). Blogs are continuing to offer only reactive comments to the real issue and, as such, are only adding to the “doom and gloom.”