Comment du Jour: Six Fewer Sales…Higher Median

As we start to get back in the groove of this blog thing, we’re going to be relying on you, so don’t hold back.

Today, we grab “kenny’s” comment. Forget about the stab at the other site, and focus on the message…we’ll make it bold for you, so you don’t miss it:

[The bears on the other site ramble] on about the Sunset [district] getting hit and what not. It hasn’t. I just searched the Outer Sunset. There were six fewer [Single Family Residence] sales in 2007 than 2006, and guess what? Higher median.

Ahhh, we have the best readers in the land!

2 thoughts on “Comment du Jour: Six Fewer Sales…Higher Median

  1. You guys kill me. In an environment where sales volume is declining, it is very easy for *every* house to lose value, and the median will still rise. I did a whole post on this very subject: http://submedian.blogspot.com/2007/11/what-hell-is-median-and-why-should-i.html

    And I have spoken to both of you about this. So I don’t understand why you are running around giving each other high fives.

    All you need to have happen is those six houses that didn’t sell all be ones on the low end. Given the current lending environment I am willing to bet money that lower priced homes are the ones having a harder time selling. This is what we are seeing in the city right now in other districts, and I don’t know what would make the Sunset different. If you sell less homes on the low end guess what happens? The median rises! Even if the prices of all homes are declining.

    This, in a nutshell, is the problem with relying on median prices to tell you something about the market. It can be misleading.

  2. Yeah. I messed up, the MLS database acts weird sometimes, and I also think you aren’t exactly correct, Missionite.

    First off, I said median when I meant average. Second, the MLS first gave me 74 and 69 and then today gave me 80 and 69 YoY sales. But both the low and high were higher for ’07.

    Houses that don’t sell aren’t in the database, but houses on the low end do sell quite well, particularly for an area like this one. We have seen this time and time again. If it is a pricepoint within people’s means, they spring. The low sale for ’07 was 625K. The low sale for ’06 was 575K.

    In 2007 the average DOM was 44 days. What that means is two weeks of marketing or less, and they got an offer. Thirty days later, they sold. In a stricter lending environment, that’s pretty good.

    My overall point remains though, I think. The Outer Sunset hasn’t really taken a a big hit like a lot of people would think (and some actively say) it would or has. As I say this there are eight active listings, two pending, and of that 10 only two would appear to be a little on the stale side. One for pricing, I think. That’s 1822 38th and it’s at 985K. The other, 1722 45th, seems to have tenants in the main house and in the rooms below.

    So that’s an eight house inventory for a pretty large geographic area. Given the sales volume for last year, I don’t think that that indicates any sort of market weakness. Quite the contrary. (Both of the pending properties should have sold by now, too. Sometimes agents just don’t update the MLS.)

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