Comments on: “The Real State of Real Estate” http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/ Real Estate, Insight, Statistics, Gossip, & News...With a Twist and Some Flavor Thu, 09 Feb 2012 07:18:36 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Sophie http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/comment-page-1/#comment-2709 Sophie Tue, 30 Oct 2007 22:43:04 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/#comment-2709 I think it's the right post to put this link: http://jec.senate.gov/Documents/Reports/10.25.07OctoberSubprimeReport.pdf (about 700K) Part I: The Housing Downturn and Its Impact on Subprime Mortgage Foreclosures (page 4) Part II: State-Level Estimates of the Economic Effects of Subprime Foreclosures (page 14) Part III: The Origins of the Subprime Lending Crisis (page 19) Part IV: Policy Responses (page 25) I'm not saying it's better than another writing, but the source itself has its impact (vs a rant on a blog). And it's full of datas that are probably reliable. I think it’s the right post to put this link:

http://jec.senate.gov/Documents/Reports/10.25.07OctoberSubprimeReport.pdf (about 700K)

Part I: The Housing Downturn and Its Impact on Subprime Mortgage Foreclosures (page 4)

Part II: State-Level Estimates of the Economic Effects of Subprime Foreclosures (page 14)

Part III: The Origins of the Subprime Lending Crisis (page 19)

Part IV: Policy Responses (page 25)

I’m not saying it’s better than another writing, but the source itself has its impact (vs a rant on a blog). And it’s full of datas that are probably reliable.

]]> By: kenny http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/comment-page-1/#comment-2708 kenny Fri, 26 Oct 2007 17:53:36 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/#comment-2708 Right here, Calamityjan. I for one never advised anyone to take a subprime loan. You have got to look at how much people make and month in, month out expenses. In the end that is the bottom line for most folks. But the realtor is just an agent after all. Nobody knows what goes on behind closed doors. [<strong>Editor's note</strong>: This topic is now on the front page, <a href="/2007/10/26/point-counter-point-more-sub-prime-mortgage-blaming/" rel="nofollow">Point Counter Point, More Sub Prime Mortgage Blaming</a>. Thanks Calamityjan and Kenny.] Right here, Calamityjan. I for one never advised anyone to take a subprime loan. You have got to look at how much people make and month in, month out expenses. In the end that is the bottom line for most folks. But the realtor is just an agent after all. Nobody knows what goes on behind closed doors.

[Editor's note: This topic is now on the front page, Point Counter Point, More Sub Prime Mortgage Blaming. Thanks Calamityjan and Kenny.]

]]> By: CalamityJan http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/comment-page-1/#comment-2707 CalamityJan Fri, 26 Oct 2007 17:15:17 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/#comment-2707 great article....(about as fair and balanced as The Fox Network) but here is a better one. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1824 great article….(about as fair and balanced as The Fox Network) but here is a better one.

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1824

]]> By: Paul http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/comment-page-1/#comment-2713 Paul Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:33:15 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/#comment-2713 The quotes are good...the numbers are poor. - The average annual increase (1968-2006) was 8.72%, not 7.75%. Each of his annual percentage increases is calculated wrongly and his 38-year average should be a compounded number not a simple average. Note that this makes his case better which shows he's merely innumerate not deliberately deceptive. - Taking an average over that period obscures the bears' basic case which is that the recent run-up is unsustainable. The average for 1968-1999 was 7.5% while the average for the 2000s is 14.4%. For the average price increase in the 2000s to average 7.5%, they would have to stay flat until 2012. - Prices increased significantly in the 1970s because inflation was so high then. The inflation-adjusted return on real estate in 1968-1999 was 2.2%. In the 2000s, it has been 11.3%. For the average real price increase in the 2000s to average 2.2%, and if we assume that inflation averages 3%, prices will have to stay flat until 2018. The quotes are good…the numbers are poor.

- The average annual increase (1968-2006) was 8.72%, not 7.75%. Each of his annual percentage increases is calculated wrongly and his 38-year average should be a compounded number not a simple average. Note that this makes his case better which shows he’s merely innumerate not deliberately deceptive.

- Taking an average over that period obscures the bears’ basic case which is that the recent run-up is unsustainable. The average for 1968-1999 was 7.5% while the average for the 2000s is 14.4%. For the average price increase in the 2000s to average 7.5%, they would have to stay flat until 2012.

- Prices increased significantly in the 1970s because inflation was so high then. The inflation-adjusted return on real estate in 1968-1999 was 2.2%. In the 2000s, it has been 11.3%. For the average real price increase in the 2000s to average 2.2%, and if we assume that inflation averages 3%, prices will have to stay flat until 2018.

]]> By: BoomTimeIsOver http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/comment-page-1/#comment-2710 BoomTimeIsOver Thu, 25 Oct 2007 19:28:46 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/#comment-2710 Gary Watts has been proven to be a huge fool in his hugely off "predictions" of OC real estate prices. Gary Watts has been proven to be a huge fool in his hugely off “predictions” of OC real estate prices.

]]> By: kenny http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/comment-page-1/#comment-2712 kenny Thu, 25 Oct 2007 18:28:37 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/#comment-2712 Also a little disingenuous, Goldman Sachs made money by shorting real estate. Honestly, I'm not worried about house values. I think the rest of the country has taken hits for nearly two years now and SF is soldiering on. We might even be in for another spike before too long. I'm worried about the availability of credit. Also a little disingenuous, Goldman Sachs made money by shorting real estate.

Honestly, I’m not worried about house values. I think the rest of the country has taken hits for nearly two years now and SF is soldiering on. We might even be in for another spike before too long.

I’m worried about the availability of credit.

]]> By: kenny http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/comment-page-1/#comment-2711 kenny Thu, 25 Oct 2007 18:25:35 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/#comment-2711 This guy makes some good points, but he's a bull through and through. Merril Lynch and Bear Stearns had shitty third quarters. Near disastrous. This paper is already out of date. This guy makes some good points, but he’s a bull through and through. Merril Lynch and Bear Stearns had shitty third quarters. Near disastrous. This paper is already out of date.

]]> By: sfre http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/comment-page-1/#comment-2714 sfre Thu, 25 Oct 2007 17:24:24 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/10/24/the-real-state-of-real-estate/#comment-2714 These were quotes that Gary Watts, an economist and real estate broker, used in a recent seminar to the real estate community in SF. [<strong>Editor's Note</strong>: Thank you!] These were quotes that Gary Watts, an economist and real estate broker, used in a recent seminar to the real estate community in SF.

[Editor's Note: Thank you!]

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