http://sfarmls.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Sanfrancisco&PRGNAME=MLSPropertyDetail&ARGUMENTS=-N739668488,-N209500,-N,-A,-N9804751

3456 Jackson St. also in contract!

http://sfarmls.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Sanfrancisco&PRGNAME=MLSPropertyDetail&ARGUMENTS=-N739668488,-N210050,-N,-A,-N9804751

Anybody want to wager the final sales prices?

I guess: $2.9 mil for Marina blvd, and $5.63 for Jackson St.

Boomtime

The bottom line is, if you meet practically ANYBODY in any one of these industries with at least 8 yrs experience (to be conservative), they are making over $500,000.

At any rate, I look forward to an update on all these properties in several weeks time. And I look forward to any listings anybody has during 4Q before bonuses are paid.

Yeah, Bayview took a big hit. I had a listing in Bayview for 599K that languished and was ultimately withdrawn. Why? Because there were 40 similar SFR’s on the market. Look at Noe right now. There are like two fixers. They’ll last two weeks. There are like three or four high end properties. Their pricepoints are speculative, but they’ll go. Look at Lower Pac Heights. There’s practically nothing.

Hey, I will not argue that there are pockets of this city (or any city, for that matter) where no price will ever be too high. When you have a decent economy chugging along and people making cash, trophy properties will certainly move.

My whole point is that we are not in the environment we were in 7-8 years ago. There are simply fewer buyers in the market. (Fewer sellers too, it seems, which has kept things pretty stable.) Those currently in the market may be loaded, but there are fewer of them. People seem to be more cautious and less willing to “overpay” (whatever that means). This includes me.

But the whole thing is a pyramid. You need people at the top and the bottom. People looking for SFRs need other people to buy their 1/1 condos or lofts. The very bottom (think Bayview) is getting crushed. The 1/1 condo and loft market frankly looks a little soft to me. Will it impact the “prime” neighborhoods? I don’t know. (Certainly not if everyone is paying with Monopoly Money…)

But I’ve just read so many stats on the huge percentages of buyers in the Bay Area who uses things like no interest loans just to combat the affordability problem. Will this come home to roost? Will it impact “prime” property? I don’t know.

What I can’t reconcile is why volume is dropping off a cliff if everyone is making money hand-over-fist… It’s a mystery to me. Seems like volume would be growing, but I don’t know.

No need to get offended by the tier-1 comment. I think HQ was just trying to point out that in the desirable locations in the city the market is still very hot. I’m following Noe Valley and have seen very similar situation to what Boomtime describes. I do wonder where these people come from, and how they got their money, but they keep coming.

I work in software as well, and Dave’s compensation sounds more like stuff I’m familiar with.

Boomtime, what industry allows you to make nearly $1m/year?

You want weakness? Go to Vallejo, Antioch, etc. Strength is all around SF, except for maybe SOMA condos which may only be getting $800-900 instead of $1,000/sqft

May I ask why you sold in two years Dave and now rent? Was it a job, or personal reasons? Or, did you look at your property as an investment? PErhaps you can shed some light on what percentage you made in two years (2006 i take it)? HQ brings up a good point about owning in SF. Perhaps your market, wherever you did buy, is different as I do hear and see weakness around SF, especially the farther you get. I have just been buying, and buying more since 1998, b/c I know in 20-30 years time, these properties will be worth more, and I don’t need the capital, b/c my income is fairly robust (I’m more than 2X your income solo, but so is everybody else at my company).

These are two properties that sold LAST YEAR, and that are selling this year. Nothing has been done to them. I have seen both. This is an apples-to-apples comparison, with 2249 Washington St. in contract already. We’ll see what the final price is. 1,200sqft LOWER 2/2 flats boys and girls for $1.5 million. This is AMAZING, but this is what DINKS [Editor's note: Dual Income No Kids] are looking to buy.

2255 Steiner St.[we think you mean 2255 Washington - CORRECT], a 2/2 asking $1.498 mil at under 1,500sqft with no view. Impressive! I bet it gets into contract by another $500,000/yr couple.

2249 Washington St., a 2/2 in contract for $1.525 mil. Who’s buying this?

Boomtime

[Editor's note: It is not a "Tier-One" blog. It's a tier -20 thru 20+...That ought to just about cover all the tiers. Thanks for your GREAT comments and participation!]

I see opportunities in this market for people to purchase property — and i shudder to use this term – under market value. I also see some properties and BALK at the price and wonder who in the world would purchase this property. More importantly from my perspective, who are the Realtors advising their clients to write an offer on these properties.

Dave – you make some valid points and raise some questions — what’s nice is that you do so in a respectful and intelligent manner. Dissent and discussion are great and everyone gains and learns – I’ve “unplugged” from other real estate blogs as the tone has become spiteful and accusatory. This is becoming a great forum for discussion and I look forward to agreeing and disagreeing with you often!