Comments on: Your chance at fame…or missed fortune. http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/ Real Estate, Insight, Statistics, Gossip, & News...With a Twist and Some Flavor Mon, 21 May 2012 00:11:30 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: hrmm http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/comment-page-1/#comment-1276 hrmm Thu, 31 May 2007 17:28:20 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/#comment-1276 ruh roh... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aguRviOo2DoI&refer=home ruh roh…

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aguRviOo2DoI&refer=home

]]> By: ah boom http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/comment-page-1/#comment-1274 ah boom Thu, 31 May 2007 04:54:32 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/#comment-1274 Median family income in SF in 1997: $64,400 Median price of a 3BR house in SF in 1997: $311k Median family income in SF in 2007: $86,500 Median price of a 3BR house in SF in 2007: $1,000,000. This isn't sustainable. Assuming wage growth remains relatively stagnant compared to housing prices, you quickly start to run out of individuals wealthy enough to afford a home long before you reach the proverbial $5 million fixer upper in the Sunset. Even as it is, roughly 60% of the city could only afford to purchase their home thanks to an option ARM. As those start to reset over the next year or two you got a problem, and even a little bump in interest rates could turn this problem into a massive one. According to DQ prices are up, but volume is nearing a ten year low. In DQ's words this is a standoff between buyer and seller. This is going to be interesting, because neither side can afford to blink, but only one side has anything to lose. That, to me, does not suggest we are going to be seeing annual increases in the 10-12% range. Median family income in SF in 1997: $64,400
Median price of a 3BR house in SF in 1997: $311k

Median family income in SF in 2007: $86,500
Median price of a 3BR house in SF in 2007: $1,000,000.

This isn’t sustainable. Assuming wage growth remains relatively stagnant compared to housing prices, you quickly start to run out of individuals wealthy enough to afford a home long before you reach the proverbial $5 million fixer upper in the Sunset.
Even as it is, roughly 60% of the city could only afford to purchase their home thanks to an option ARM. As those start to reset over the next year or two you got a problem, and even a little bump in interest rates could turn this problem into a massive one.

According to DQ prices are up, but volume is nearing a ten year low. In DQ’s words this is a standoff between buyer and seller. This is going to be interesting, because neither side can afford to blink, but only one side has anything to lose. That, to me, does not suggest we are going to be seeing annual increases in the 10-12% range.

]]> By: Boom http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/comment-page-1/#comment-1275 Boom Thu, 31 May 2007 00:37:52 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/#comment-1275 Ah Boom - Frankly, I do believe in 7 years time, people will be kicking themselves thinking how could they let that $1.5 million fixer slip away. People are kicking themselves now for not buying last fall, and two years ago. It just goes on and on again. I never would have imagined a SFH Marina row house not off Marina Blvd/PalaceFA could break $2.5 mil 2 years ago, and it did. This year, 3321 Octavia breaks $3.5 mil to $3.7 mil, and now we have this 1771 <del datetime="2007-05-31T01:37:01+00:00">Francisco</del> North Point house asking $4.995 mil?! The plot of land has not changed, yes the houses have grown, but wow. I would never EVER have imagined Marina SFHs would break $3million by 2010. Boy was I wrong. Ah Boom – Frankly, I do believe in 7 years time, people will be kicking themselves thinking how could they let that $1.5 million fixer slip away. People are kicking themselves now for not buying last fall, and two years ago. It just goes on and on again.
I never would have imagined a SFH Marina row house not off Marina Blvd/PalaceFA could break $2.5 mil 2 years ago, and it did. This year, 3321 Octavia breaks $3.5 mil to $3.7 mil, and now we have this 1771 Francisco North Point house asking $4.995 mil?! The plot of land has not changed, yes the houses have grown, but wow.
I would never EVER have imagined Marina SFHs would break $3million by 2010. Boy was I wrong.

]]> By: ah boom http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/comment-page-1/#comment-1273 ah boom Tue, 29 May 2007 17:28:09 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/#comment-1273 First of all I love this blog. It's good for a laugh more days then not. Second of all I can't wait to read the column you guys seem to think is coming in 2014: "I could have bought that fixer upper in the sunset for a mere million in 2007... now it's selling for four million". ROFLMAO! You have any idea what kind of wage growth we'll need to see in order for people to even make their mortgage? But who knows maybe brokers will start introducing 100 year mortgages like they did in Japan before the housing crash there... Finally thanks for the dq numbers boom. With such a small data set it's hard to draw firm conclusions but one fact stands out above all others: If the median dropped, the number of sales significantly increased. Likewise if the median price increased, the number of sales slowed substantially. The difference in sales volume growth between the two groups is impressive: it's about a 45 percent spread. As a result I think realtors would be wise to exert some downward pressure on their clients asking price, as they are going to make more money selling lots of houses with smaller commissions then sitting around for months waiting for that one big fish to come in. First of all I love this blog. It’s good for a laugh more days then not.

Second of all I can’t wait to read the column you guys seem to think is coming in 2014: “I could have bought that fixer upper in the sunset for a mere million in 2007… now it’s selling for four million”. ROFLMAO! You have any idea what kind of wage growth we’ll need to see in order for people to even make their mortgage? But who knows maybe brokers will start introducing 100 year mortgages like they did in Japan before the housing crash there…

Finally thanks for the dq numbers boom. With such a small data set it’s hard to draw firm conclusions but one fact stands out above all others: If the median dropped, the number of sales significantly increased. Likewise if the median price increased, the number of sales slowed substantially. The difference in sales volume growth between the two groups is impressive: it’s about a 45 percent spread.
As a result I think realtors would be wise to exert some downward pressure on their clients asking price, as they are going to make more money selling lots of houses with smaller commissions then sitting around for months waiting for that one big fish to come in.

]]> By: Boom http://thefrontsteps.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/comment-page-1/#comment-1272 Boom Tue, 29 May 2007 01:48:54 +0000 http://thefrontsteps.wordpress.com/2007/05/28/your-chance-at-fameor-misfortune/#comment-1272 This will be an interesting column when it finally airs. April's zip code prices out. Looks pretty darn good in some areas, and not so good in others. http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSFC.shtm This will be an interesting column when it finally airs.

April’s zip code prices out. Looks pretty darn good in some areas, and not so good in others.

http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSFC.shtm

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